The break of the $71,000 resistance was “crucial” for bitcoin, says van de Poppe.
For the thesis not to be invalidated, it would be necessary for bitcoin not to fall below USD 69,500.
Michaël van de Poppe, market analyst, believes that bitcoin (BTC) is building a bullish structure following the improvement of the geopolitical climate in the Middle East, although he warns that the $80,000 area will be a decisive test for the market.
In his analysis published on April 8, 2026, van de Poppe starts from a specific fact: the rise of bitcoin after the latest news about the conflict in the Middle East.
As CriptoNoticias has reported, the digital asset is trading above $70,000 after the announcement of the two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran and with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime corridor through which 20% of the world’s oil circulates.
In this framework, the analyst was explicit about that relationship. “This is what you would want to see. I mentioned before that a ceasefire would be a clear direction for the markets. It happened,” he wrote.
He also added: “Bitcoin breaks the crucial $71,000 level and builds a bullish structure. Oil is down and the strait is open, which means there is an active mean reversion play in BTC.”
To support his thesis, he shared BTC chart with technical indicators.
The graph he shared shows just that reading. This is a daily BTC chart that shows, first, a sharp drop during February and, later, a recovery and consolidation phase.
A moving average (MA) appears above the price in blue, which works as a medium-term trend reference. After several weeks of weakness, BTC managed to return to the $71,000 area, marked on the chart as an important technical level.
For van de Poppe, that breakout was “crucial” because it changed the immediate structure of the market and allowed us to rethink a sequence of higher lows and higher highs.
In the middle part of the chart you can see a green zone, located approximately between $69,500 and $70,000. That area represents the support that BTC should defend for the bullish thesis to remain valid.
It should be noted that, in technical analysis, a support is an area where demand appears and the price tends to find support when it retraces. Van de Poppe sums it up like this: “What is crucial for BTC to hold? I would love to see the $69,500-$70,000 area hold as support.” And he adds why that level matters: “That would strengthen the whole theory of higher lows, higher highs and continue the upward momentum.”
Higher up, the chart marks a red zone around $80,000, marked as the next great resistance, a level where the price usually slows down due to the appearance of sales.
According to van de Poppe, that level is not chosen at random. “The 200-week moving average is at $79,000, which is why I mark this level at $80,000 as the crucial resistance zone. It resonates with all the liquidity above the highs,” he explained.
In other words, a long-term technical reference and an area where pending orders are probably concentrated converge there, which can make continued bullish continuity without pause more difficult.
The analyst’s underlying idea is that bitcoin could continue advancing if it manages to sustain the aforementioned support and takes advantage of the relief left by the truce in the Middle East. The decline in the price of oil and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz reduce, at least for now, a part of the global inflationary risk, something that usually benefits assets considered risky.
Ray Dalio issues a warning to the markets
However, not everyone shares this positive reading of the political and macroeconomic situation. Ray Dalio warned on April 7 that the market tends to react with too much force to the most striking events of the momentwithout paying enough attention to deeper structural forces.
In his most recent publication, the founder of Bridgewater and experienced investor commented that, for him, the ceasefire may have given fresh air to the market, but it does not necessarily resolve the overall background picture which, in his opinion, remains critical.
Against this backdrop, bitcoin will face a real test in the near term: proving that this momentum was not just a rebound from geopolitical relief, but the beginning of a stronger bull leg.