Oil is approaching $100 per barrel again.
Iran believes that, with the attack on Lebanon, the 2-week truce would not be jeopardized.
The price of bitcoin (BTC) stagnated this Thursday, April 9, 2026 around $71,000, without continuing its rise, while the ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran shows its first cracks less than 48 hours after being announced.
Israel reactivated its bombings on LebanonIran maintains the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and oil is once again approaching 100 dollars per barrel. The market is in standby mode.
The stagnation contrasts with the rebound on April 7, when bitcoin surpassed $72,000 driven by US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a two-week bilateral truce conditional on the reopening of the Strait.
This movement was already analyzed by CriptoNoticias as a reaction of relief, not as a sign of a change in trend. What happens today confirms that reading.
The following chart shows how bitcoin has moved over the last 7 days:
What is happening in Lebanon?
Israel launched new attacks over Beirut and southern Lebanon in the early hours and dawn of Thursday, following a previous offensive that left more than 250 dead, according to Reuters. The Israeli army also reported eliminating the nephew of Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem.
Israel maintains that its operations in Lebanon are outside the scope of the ceasefire announced by Trump. Washington supported that position. But Iran and Pakistan – a mediator in the negotiations – claim that the agreement explicitly included Lebanon. The United Kingdom, France and other countries join this interpretation.
Hezbollah, which had initially said it would pause its attacks in line with the truce, announced Thursday morning that it was resuming them.
Iran was forceful: there will be no agreement as long as Israel continues bombing Lebanon. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh called the Israeli strikes a “serious violation” of the ceasefire.
The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked
Despite the ceasefire announcement, there are no signs that Iran has completely lifted its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
According to Reuters, daily ship traffic through the strait fell to less than 10% of its historical average since the start of the war, causing the worst disruption to global energy supplies in history.
Likewise, CriptoNoticias reported yesterday that Iran would begin charging a tariff in bitcoin and cryptocurrencies to oil tankers that cross the Strait of Hormuz. Apparently, that would not be happening yet.
The impact on the price of bitcoin
Some readers may be wondering What does all this have to do with the price of bitcoin? The relationship is the following:
- 1) Expensive oil fuels global inflationary pressures.
- 2) Inflation puts pressure on the US Federal Reserve (FED) and other central banks around the world to maintain high rates.
- 3) High rates are adverse for assets considered “risky.”
- 4) Bitcoin, which institutional managers continue to classify in that category, is sorry.
The logic is straightforward: if the ceasefire collapses and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, oil will continue to rise and the FED will have less room to cut rates. That scenario is negative for bitcoin.
In this context, we see that bitcoin is trading in a world where there is an unstable equilibrium and no one yet knows in which direction events will evolve.
Some are optimistic, like Michaël van de Poppe who maintains that bitcoin will head to $80,000 soon.
Others remain cautious or are even bearish. The trader and market analyst Willy Woo is one of them. Recently, as CriptoNoticias reported, he maintained that the price of bitcoin could fall to $46,000.
Outside of the bitcoiner sphere, the one who expresses great pessimism about the current situation is the American investor Ray Dalio. The experienced businessman assures that We are in a world war that manifests itself from multiple fronts and that the situation does not look like it will improve in the near future.