Israel says it will ‘soon’ negotiate with Lebanon

The managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned of major disruption among countries affected by the war in the Middle East, including lasting economic impacts, even if a shaky partial ceasefire holds.

Kristalina Georgieva said food insecurity could affect at least 45 million people as a result of disruptions in transportation and supply chains caused by the war.

“Even in the best case, there will be no clean return to the status quo,” he said, opening the annual spring meetings co-hosted by the IMF and the World Bank.

“Transportation bottlenecks as well as sharp increases in oil, gas and fertilizer prices will inevitably lead to rising food prices and food insecurity,” a joint statement at the meeting said.

Georgieva also said that the IMF expects more requests for financial assistance in the near future.

“Given the impact of the Middle East war, we expect near-term demands on the IMF’s balance of payments to rise to between $20 billion (about €17 billion) and $50 billion, with the lower bound prevailing if the ceasefire holds,” Georgieva said.

He said the IMF would lower its 2026 global growth forecast in response to conflict and rising energy costs, even in the IMF’s “most promising scenario”. Georgieva also highlighted the “asymmetric” impacts of the crisis that will hit low-income and low-volume energy importers the most.

“Just spare a thought for the Pacific island countries at the end of the supply chain, wondering whether fuel will still be able to reach them after such a severe disruption,” he said.