“This final phase is about putting pressure on long-term hodlers,” says Darkfost.
Far from an immediate rebound, this final phase may bring additional declines before the rebound.
The financial analyst known as Darkfost stated this Friday, April 10, 2026 that “bitcoin (BTC) has entered the final phase of its bear market.”
According to the specialist, the identification of a repetitive pattern in the behavior of bitcoin suggests the closure of a prolonged negative trend. This technical move is motivated by the need to “cleanse” the market of speculative participants before a change of address.
Even though the price of bitcoin today exceeds the $70,000 barrier, the analyst warns that this stage does not imply an immediate rebound. On the contrary, the process seeks to “put pressure on long-term investors”.
Darkfost explains that the current phase has the primary objective of testing the psychological resistance of these group of investors to force the sale of their assets.
Historically, this cycle “typically begins with short-term investors.” The latter have already experienced high levels of financial stress over the previous six months before the pressure shifts to stronger holders.
Although the analyst announces the final stage of the bearish cycle, also warns that the price of bitcoin could still see significant declines. «Can it go lower? Yes. Can it last several more months? “Also yes,” says Darkfost to emphasize that the end of the trend is not synonymous with an immediate rise in prices.
To support his argument, the analyst uses the LTH SOPR indicator (Spent Output Profit Ratio). This metric allows you to track whether long-term bitcoin holders are making profits or recording losses by moving their funds. A value below 1 indicates that investors are selling at a loss, which is interpreted as a sign of capitulation or technical surrender.
The analyst acknowledges that this tool is not an exact measure because it includes simple transfers of funds between own wallets. However, Darkfost maintains that the indicator “provides a very strong overall trend” to understand market sentiment. Currently, the 30-day moving average of the LTH SOPR remains at 0.96 (thick blue line, currently below the dotted black “1” line), confirming that this group of investors is already taking real losses, as seen on the chart.
In contrast, The annual average of the same indicator is still in positive territory with a value of 1.71. This difference is due to the inertia of the data collected during the previous months of prosperity. However, when long-term investors make sustained losses, “it becomes a signal worth monitoring for long-term accumulation.”
The analyst suggests that the market is going through a period of capitulation where only the most convinced investors will remain. In his view, “this is a phase that must be approached with a long-term time frame in mind.” As CriptoNoticias reported, the global context adds uncertainty given the expectation that the United States and Iran will begin diplomatic talks tomorrow in Islamabad. The objective is to reduce the tensions of the armed conflict, a situation that can directly impact the price of bitcoin in the short term.