Hungary will face its most decisive match on April 12 parliamentary elections Since Hungary’s communist regime voluntarily stepped down in 1989/90. The question is whether Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his government can be removed from office or not. For the first time since 2010, there is a real possibility that an opposition party – Orban’s main rival, the conservative Tisza party led by Peter Magyar – could win.
In Hungary the election is being seen as a significant moment in the country’s modern history. It could also determine the future of the EU and play a role in how much Russia can influence the bloc in the future.
How did Orbán change Hungary?
Following his first electoral victory with a two-thirds majority in the spring of 2010, Orbán announced the National Cooperation System (NER) and shook up the elites in the state, administrative and judicial apparatus as well as the civil service and filled key positions with his loyalists. Hungary has since transformed into a highly centralized state.
Orbán has also weakened the system of checks and balances and thus the prospects for countering the regime. Most print and audiovisual media outlets have been brought under government control, either directly or indirectly through companies and foundations affiliated with Orbán’s party Fidesz; The autonomy of universities has been abolished; And a significant portion of state and public assets is placed under the control of Orbán-affiliated foundations. Experts describe Hungary today as a “hybrid system” situated between democracy and dictatorship.
Why do many Hungarians want change in government?
Orbán’s economic and tax policies have supported his upper-middle-class base, but public infrastructure, health care and education, as well as the financial situation of many other Hungarians, have deteriorated in recent years. There is widespread dissatisfaction with open cases of state corruption and illegal self-enrichment. Many Hungarians have also grown tired of the atmosphere of verbal civil war created by Orbán, such as portraying Ukraine as a “villain” at war with Russia, or constantly denigrating his critics as enemies and “traitors to the Fatherland”.
Why are elections so important for Europe?
Orbán’s stated goal is to “conquer Brussels” and transform the EU into a federation of politically sovereign nations that share common economic interests. The Prime Minister of Hungary has railed against the bloc for years and has at times rendered it unable to function effectively, through his vetoes and refusal to support important decisions regarding the EU and foreign policy. Another victory for Orbán would further weaken the EU, while a change of power in the Hungarian capital Budapest would contribute to reinvigorating the bloc.
Why are elections so important for Russia?
No other EU member state has as close ties to Russia as Orbán’s Hungary. Although he approved most of the bloc’s sanctions against Russia following its annexation of Crimea in 2014, he has repeatedly called for their waiver and removal while blocking as much support for Ukraine as possible following a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. By doing so, they have weakened the EU – a stated common goal of both Orbán and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Orban’s defeat in the elections would be a serious blow to Russia.
Can the Orbán regime be ousted?
After the 2010 election, Fidesz began to push for major electoral reforms, including a greater emphasis on the first-past-the-post system, giving the party a significant lead that persists to this day. Of the 199 MLAs, 106 are elected by simple majority in single-member districts. Constituencies loyal to Fidesz are smaller, meaning fewer votes are needed to elect representatives there. In the last election in 2022, Orbán’s party received about 53% of the vote, but he won a large number of constituencies, giving him less than 68% of the seats in parliament – an absolute majority.
Ethnic Hungarians living in countries neighboring Hungary and holding Hungarian citizenship are allowed to vote for party lists and participate via absentee ballot. However, Hungarians in Western European countries who are critical of Orbán can only vote at embassies and consulates in those states, but not through absentee ballot.
Hungarian election experts argue that the voting system is unfair, but some believe that there will be vote rigging in the upcoming election. Some have said that there is some potential for fraud in the postal voting system and that votes from ethnic Hungarians in neighboring countries could secure Orbán an additional seat or two. This means that bringing about change in the government will be difficult but not impossible.
What do opinion polls say and how reliable are they?
Hungarian election analysts are confident that the absolute majority of voters in Hungary want a change in government. For more than a year, independent polling firms have predicted a lead – in some cases a significant one – for the Tisza party over Fidesz. However, these figures only partially reflect the electoral prospects of individual candidates in each constituency. These surveys do not fully take into account Fidesz’s voter base, which consists primarily of older adults and retirees from small towns and villages. Therefore, the survey’s predictions may be wrong. However, most election analysts expect Orbán to be removed from office.
What would Peter do if Magyar became the new leader?
The main goal and objective of Peter Magyar and his Tisza party is to distance Hungary from Russia and become a reliable ally of the EU and NATO again. However, with regard to migration and Ukraine, Magyar intends to continue Hungary’s current approach, at least partially, but without entering into full confrontation within the EU.
On the domestic front, Magyar has announced a crackdown on corruption and “systemic change”, which would include introducing a fairer electoral system, limiting the term of the prime minister to two electoral cycles, and writing a new constitution. Orbán and other high-ranking politicians in his inner circle could face charges of corruption and high treason.
If Orbán is voted out, will he accept defeat?
Orban has not yet answered this question directly. He only said that he sometimes wins and sometimes loses elections and that Hungary is a democracy.
If Orbán claims victory, mass demonstrations are likely, and violent clashes are also possible, as anger and hatred towards the Orbán regime is now widespread. If Orbán loses, whether his supporters will take to the streets en masse will likely depend on his attitude.
Can the Orbán system be dismantled?
Orbán has taken several precautions to avoid losing power. Many changes to his system require a two-thirds parliamentary majority, and many key positions have been filled in the coming years. Thus, his own “deep state” could easily ruin a government that enjoys only a simple majority. And even with a two-thirds majority, it may take years for Tisza to completely replace the Orbán system.
This article was translated from German.