In the early morning of this Wednesday, April 15, 2026, The price of bitcoin (BTC) reached $76,000a level that has not been seen since March 16 almost a month ago.
But, quickly, the price of the digital currency fell and At the time of writing, each bitcoin is trading at $74,000.as can be seen in the CriptoNoticias Price Calculator.
The following graph, provided by TradingView, allows you to see what the behavior of bitcoin has been since March 1, with one-hour candles (red and green bars):
Since yesterday, some analysts and traders were warning that The digital currency could reach the area close to $76,000 and there it would encounter resistance.
For example, Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, wrote on Tuesday morning in his personal X account: “the price of bitcoin is approaching important resistance in a bear market: the price realized on the blockchain (On-chain Realized Price), which currently stands at $76,800.
Also yesterday, from the market analysis firm, Alphractal, it was commented that bitcoin was approaching “key on-chain cost resistance levels, such as the true average market price and the realized price of short-term holders.” The firm’s analysts said that “it is important to monitor this region, since historically these levels have acted as resistance during bear market phases.”
Regarding short-term expectations for the price of bitcoin, there are diverse opinions. The trader and market analyst, Lennaert Snyder, believe that “this could be the beginning of a major correction”. Likewise, he assures that he could begin to take long positions, that is, bullish, only when bitcoin falls to the $72,000 area.
The trader who identifies himself in internet forums as ArdiNSC shows a much more bearish view. In the opinion of this specialist, There are “inveterate bulls” who refuse to see what, according to him, is really happening..
The uncomfortable truth about bear markets is that they spend more time slowly rising than falling. That’s why most people continue to be fooled by them. This is how markets work mechanically, and what die-hard bulls conveniently forget in every rally.
ArdiNSC, trader.
This specialist shows a graph of the price of bitcoin where it can be seen that the digital currency would be repeating a pattern already seen in the past and that The culmination of this move could be close to $50,000.
But, to add more excitement to the debate, Peter Thoc, founder of the organization The House of Crypto comment Although he recognizes that historical patterns would show potentially bearish behavior, he rejects that the same will happen this time.
Thoc says that, although the graphic pattern resembles that of declines that bitcoin has had in 2022, now “funding rates are massively negative, which shows that everyone is accumulating short positions. Meanwhile, cash sales have dried up. “So as spot buying increases, it pushes the price up.”
This specialist adds that “once those short positions begin to be liquidated above $76,000 we could see a rebound to the mid-$80,000s.
Remember: the graph only tells you a very small piece of the puzzle. But macro, sentiment, leverage ratio, earnings ratios… everything points to a different 2022 story.
Peter Thoc, founder of The House of Crypto.
Having said all this, it must be mentioned that the technical analysis debate on resistances and chart patterns cannot be separated from what happens on the geopolitical board. And today that board is dominated by what is happening in Iran.
In the early hours of this Wednesday, the Brent oil price was below 100 dollars per barrel before signs that negotiations between Washington and Tehran could be resumed in Pakistan soon.
But, the situation remains fragile. The conflict has caused an inflationary rebound that distances expectations of rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (FED). A context of high rates is, historically, a headwind for assets considered “risky” like bitcoin.
Therefore, every statement from Trump, every naval movement in the Strait of Hormuz and every signal from Islamabad moves the price of bitcoin and has the potential to ruin any prediction based exclusively on technical analysis.
As the two-week armistice expires on April 21 and nuclear negotiations remain bogged down in details — Tehran wants a three- to five-year pause in its enrichment program; Washington demands twenty—, bitcoin will remain hostage to the diplomatic calendar.