By the end of the year, bitcoin (BTC) would trade at more than $185,000, these analysts say.
Galaxy also foresees great advances for the cryptocurrency industry.
It has been estimated that bitcoin (BTC) will exceed $150,000 in the first half of 2025, according to the report presented by the investment company Galaxy.
In it reportthe company also projects that the asset could trade above $185,000 towards the fourth quarter of the same year.
The projections have been based on a combination of factors, including institutional, corporate and state adoption.
Bitcoin has historically shown a faster rate of appreciation than the S&P 500 and gold in many periods, especially in recent years, and that trend, according to the analysis, will continue.
In the table above you can see how bitcoin has shown a higher average growth than gold and the S&P 500.
ETF growth drives market
One factor that will drive the price of BTC next year has to do with the performance of bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States. According to Galaxy estimates, financial instruments will collectively exceed $250 billion in assets under management (AUM) in 2025.
exchange-traded funds, achieved net inflows of more than $36 billion in 2024. This growth made ETFs the most successful launch cohort in the history of exchange-traded products.
This advance has been attributed to both record capital inflows and bitcoin price appreciation.
Bitcoin will outperform in risk-adjusted terms
According to Galaxy, bitcoin will once again be among the “best risk-adjusted performing” global assets in 2025.
The conclusion is based on both record inflows and bitcoin appreciation throughout 2024.
In fact, bitcoin is the third best-performing asset in risk-adjusted terms compared to a range of stocks, fixed income securities, indices and commodities, as seen in the chart below.
It should be noted that the best Sharpe ratio belongs to MicroStrategya company that has focused on acquiring bitcoin to include it in its treasury. It currently has 444,262 BTC, becoming the publicly traded company with the largest amount of bitcoin in its possession, as reported by CriptoNoticias.
The Sharpe ratio measures the additional return that an investor obtains for each unit of additional risk assumed. The higher the Sharpe ratio, the better the relationship between risk and return..
Bitcoin and institutional adoption
The report predicts that, by 2025, at least one of the leading wealth management platforms will officially recommend a bitcoin allocation of at least 2% within the model portfolios.
To date, no institution of this type has made such a recommendation, due to compliance requirements and internal training, among other factors.
It has also been projected that five Nasdaq 100 companies and five national states will include bitcoin in their balance sheets or sovereign wealth funds.
These decisions could be motivated by strategic and diversification reasons, as well as competition between non-aligned states and economic adversaries of the United States.
Ethereum Will Also See a Significant Rally
The document also included projections for ether (ETH), Ethereum’s cryptocurrency and the second largest in the market.
galaxy estimates that ETH will exceed $5,500 in 2025driven by the easing of regulatory hurdles for decentralized finance (DeFi) and staking.
The integration of traditional capital markets with public blockchains, especially those based on Ethereum, has been mentioned by Galaxy as a key factor for this growth.
Additionally, “corporations will increasingly experiment with their own Layer 2 networks, primarily based on Ethereum.”
The Galaxy Report presents an optimistic outlook for bitcoin and etherpointing out the role of institutional and state adoption as drivers of growth.
Projections highlight the expansion of spot ETFs and the integration of cryptocurrency networks into traditional markets as major catalysts for 2025. The digital asset industry, according to the analysis, is positioned to reach new milestones in the coming years.
