Key facts:
So far in Q3 2024, BTC is down more than 13%
Historically, September tends to be a negative month for the markets.
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen by 13% so far in the third quarter of 2024, its worst performance in the last 5 years between the months of June and September.
As CriptoNoticias has been reporting, late August and September are usually difficult periods for financial markets, including BTC and cryptocurrencies. In the northern hemisphere it is summer and that is why economic activities are often paralyzed by holidays.
However, according to data collected by the explorer Coinglass, BTC’s performance between the months of July, August and so far in September fell by 13.59% and exceeded the 11.54% of the same period in 2023.
It is worth noting that there are still more than 20 days left until the end of September, but if it ends like this, it will be the worst performance in the last 5 years. In the third quarter of 2019 it was 22.86%as seen in the following table:
At the time of publication of this note, the price of the digital currency created by Satoshi Nakamoto is located below the $54,000 line, which represents a monthly drop of 10%. After reaching an all-time high (ATH) of $73,700 in March 2024, the price plummeted by more than 25%.
Can Bitcoin Price Rebound Before the End of September?
In this context, the question arises about if there is a chance of a price rebound of the digital currency for the remainder of the month.
The catalyst that could drive the recovery of the BTC price could be the publication of macroeconomic data from the United States.
On Friday, September 6, the employment data for that country was released, which did not bring any major news. During August 160,000 new jobs were created, a figure that contrasts with the 114,000 reported in Julyone of the worst-performing months since 2021.
Juan Rodriguez, cryptocurrency market analyst, ensures that “the labor market is falling faster than expected by the United States Federal Reserve (FED)” and adds that for this reason “bearish alerts on bitcoin are increasing.”
He also added that there could be good news on Thursday, September 12, when unemployment claims reports are released in that country. If they remain bad, The impact could spread to the risk assetssuch as stocks, BTC and cryptocurrencies.
On September 18, the Fed will announce the amount of the interest rate cut. It is currently at around 5.25%-5.5%.
“We need to keep things in perspective because alarm bells are ringing today, but I would still expect a 25-point cut,” says Rodriguez, explaining that if the labor market becomes weaker, there is a possibility of a 50-point reduction, which could be seen as an indication of applying strong measures to revive the U.S. economy.
Bitcoin ETFs in the red
As CriptoNoticias already reported, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States have accumulated 8 days with money outflows, the worst streak since its launch on the market.
On Friday, after it was announced that the unemployment rate fell from 4.3% to 4.2%, all 12 ETFs had a negative performance and reported capital outflows of $167 million.
From August 26 to September 6, BTC-based financial instruments accumulated withdrawals of more than $1.16 billion, which has generated downward pressure on the price of the digital currency.
Due to the way they work, the performance of ETFs directly impacts the price of bitcoin. This is because the companies that manage the Funds must buy and hold BTC in their treasuries to back their actions.
However, if there is an outflow of capital from ETFs, the companies that manage them could sell the surplus BTC.
This reduces or increases the number of assets available on the market, which can lead to an increase or decrease in the price of BTC.