Rwandan President Paul Kagame has threatened to withdraw his troops from Mozambique’s conflict-torn northern province of Cabo Delgado in early May, a move primarily intended to put pressure on Europe.
The mission against Islamic insurgents could soon end if the European Union (EU) does not provide a credible funding commitment. The warning comes amid reports that Brussels could end its support for the operation. Since 2022, the EU has contributed approximately $46 million (€39 million) – an amount estimated to be less than a fifth of Rwanda’s total costs.
How much does Rwanda’s military mission really cost?
However, the actual overall cost is disputed. Borges Nahmire, a Mozambique security expert at the think tank Institute for Security Studies, told DW that the data presented by Kigali is difficult to verify.
For example, Rwanda reportedly invoices transportation costs through its state airline RwandAir – but “no one knows whether these costs actually occurred at that level.” So it is possible that the total cost is being overstated.
Europe needs Mozambique’s gas and Rwanda’s security presence
For Mozambique, withdrawal would represent a major security shock – for Europe, a geopolitical risk. Rwanda is unlikely to be interested in a rapid withdrawal from Cabo Delgado. That’s why a sudden end to the mission seems unlikely, Nahmire told DW.
“The most likely scenario is that Rwandan troops will remain there in some form or another.” There is much at stake – including Kigali. “If they were to back out now, it would not be good for many of Rwanda’s business interests.”
Rwanda’s commitment is long-term in nature. The expected profits are closely linked to the development of gas projects, which are slowly gaining momentum. Private Rwandan security companies are also hoping for lucrative contracts from international companies investing in the sector. “Above all, the EU has its own interest in the stability of the gas fields,” Nahmire said.
The largest investors come from France, Italy and other European countries. The initial consignment has already reached Europe.
It is difficult to replace Rwandan soldiers
Since 2021, Rwandan troops have been securing the area at the request of the Mozambican government, helping to restart major energy projects that had been disrupted due to terrorist activity. Today more than 4,000 soldiers are deployed. Their main advantage is experience and local network.
“Rwandans now have an institutional memory,” Nahmire said. Quick replacement is hardly realistic. The new forces must first adapt to a complex environment – fighting a guerrilla movement that “disguises itself as fishermen or farmers” and hides within the civilian population.
However, political pressure on Kigali is increasing. EU and US sanctions over Rwanda’s role in the conflict in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo are complicating any expansion of funding.
For Nahmire, this is more than a political problem: “A huge contradiction is emerging.” The EU is supporting the Rwandan mission in Cabo Delgado as well as being politically opposed to Rwanda’s involvement in eastern Congo. There is a “very high risk” that European funds could inadvertently flow into both conflicts.
Controversial debate within the EU institutions
The debate is also controversial within the European Parliament and other EU bodies. Portuguese MEP Helder Sousa Silva, of the conservative European People’s Party (EPP) and member of the Security and Defense Committee, warned against hasty conclusions. Allowing funding for Rwanda’s deployment to Cabo Delgado “would be serious and should not be trivialized.” The mission in Mozambique must be evaluated separately from Rwanda’s role in Congo. “This is about the security of Cabo Delgado and ultimately the stability of Mozambique.”
At the same time, Sousa Silva acknowledges the political sensitivity of the decision. EU sanctions against Rwanda over alleged support for M23 rebels in eastern Congo have complicated the situation for member states. Yet the EU has a strong interest in supporting the Rwanda Defense Forces (RDF) in Cabo Delgado. The financial burden for Europe is manageable: “The issue will never be one of resources, but of collective politics within the EU.”
Europe must remain a strong political and economic actor in the region. In their view, withdrawal would have far-reaching consequences, with the MEP warning: “If Europe withdraws, other players with dubious intentions will fill the void.”
Cabo Delgado: The situation remains critical
The situation remains unstable for Mozambique. According to Nahmire, the country’s own security forces are still not able to stabilize the conflict zone on their own.
“At the same time, the conflict highlights the limitations of an approach focused primarily on military security of infrastructure. The root causes of violence – poverty, exclusion and lack of prospects – remain unresolved.”
Therefore, Rwanda’s threat is primarily a calculated instrument of pressure. Kigali is signaling: there is no security without compensation. For Europe, the question is whether it is willing to pay that price.
This article was originally written in German.