France and the United Kingdom have said they are ready to lead a multinational mission to help restore freedom of navigation and trade in the Strait of Hormuz, to be deployed only after peace is agreed in the region.
But the mood at the alliance of non-belligerent states meeting in Paris on Friday was one of caution.
A temporary ceasefire has halted fighting between Iran and the US-Israeli coalition until April 22. On Thursday, a 10-day ceasefire was also announced between Israel and Lebanon, home to the Iran-backed militia Hezbollah.
And on Friday, both Iran and the US said the Strait of Hormuz is now “open” to commercial shipping, although the US said the blockade of Iranian ports would remain in place until a peace deal is reached with Tehran.
Maritime traffic there had been halted since the war began on February 28, with the Iranians threatening to bomb merchant ships attempting to pass through the key waterway. About 20% of the world’s oil and gas typically passes through the strait.
“The ceasefire in Lebanon and Iran, as well as Iran’s statement on the Strait of Hormuz, are steps in the right direction,” French President Emmanuel Macron said at a news conference after Friday’s meeting. “But we consider these developments with caution.”
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who co-chaired the meeting, said the opening of the strait should be a “permanent and practical proposal”.
Macron and Starmer were joined by German and Italian leaders Friedrich Merz and Giorgia Meloni and representatives of nearly 50 European, Asian, African and South American countries and international organizations, many of whom attended remotely.
Non-warring parties, international observers remain wary
International experts appeared to express skepticism about the recent announcements.
Jacob Larsson, chief safety and security officer of the international shipping association BIMCO, wrote on the social network LinkedIn that it was not accurate that the Strait of Hormuz was completely open and that it “cannot be declared safe for transit!!”
Ian Ralby, a maritime and international affairs expert and head of the US-based NGO Auxilium Worldwide, supported that view, and stressed that the coalition of non-belligerent states was right to show restraint.
“First the war needs to end completely and even then, the chances of things going wrong or even friendly fire incidents breaking out are very high,” he told DW. “The irrationality and sporadic escalating activities of the three belligerents are so extreme that Europe will be very keen to avoid entangling itself in a mess it had no choice in starting.”
Michelle Wiese Bockman, senior maritime intelligence analyst at Windward, a UK-based maritime AI company, said Iran’s recent claim of laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz has added further pressure.
“That threat alone has kept traffic from increasing again after the ceasefire was announced,” he said.
“It’s not clear whether there are actually any mines, but 832 tanker ships and cargo are blocked in the strait right now,” he said, underscoring that the blockade has also driven up insurance premiums.
Non-belligerent countries have said they can escort ships through the strait and help clear mines.
“We can provide mine-clearance ships – we are good at that,” German Chancellor Merz said Friday, adding that such an intervention would need a “solid legal basis.”
Retired French general and military adviser Dominique Trinquand told DW that the US would really need help in the region.
He said, “The Europeans are much better equipped than the Americans and can, for example, provide their tripartite mine clearance ships under the control of the French, Dutch and Belgians.” “The French are now likely to provide the largest number of ships [to escort merchant ships]”
Trump card to cheat?
Jean-Paul Palomeros, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Transformation, thinks it is important for the alliance to use this expertise as a trump card. After Trump expressed anger at European countries for not supporting the US in the Iran war, partner countries are eager to show their goodwill to the US.
“They should try to calm Trump down, because after all, the United States is the cornerstone of NATO,” Palomeros said. “We need the alliance to be strong in order to deflect or respond to future attacks on member states – for example, if Russia attacks one of the Baltic states following the end of the war in Ukraine.”
At Friday’s meeting leaders became aware of the need to keep Trump at bay. Many, including Italy’s Meloni, mentioned Operation Aspides, the EU’s mission to protect shipping in the Red Sea. Merchant ships there are facing attacks from Iran-backed Shia Muslim Houthis in Yemen.
“They were right in highlighting that mission, sending a message to the Americans that these countries are doing everything they can to secure yet another part of the ocean,” Palomeros said.
But Reem Momtaz, a geopolitical advisor and editor-in-chief of Carnegie Europe’s blog Strategic Europe, believes the pressure on Europe to act is likely to increase.
“There is a legitimate question that can be asked of France and the countries in this coalition, as the ceasefire looks to follow: Are you going to start moving ships across the Strait of Hormuz and have you identified a safe corridor there?” he told DW. “And where are they with their discussions with insurance and shipping companies to prepare for the future?”
Military chiefs from non-warring countries are due to meet next week at the UK Military Command headquarters in Northwood, outside London, for further discussions on their potential role in the region.
Edited by: M. Kuebler