The price of bitcoin (BTC) surpassed the 76,000 barrier yesterday afternoon, April 20, 2026, which marks a recovery of more than 20% after having bottomed out at $60,000 on February 5. This increase places the price of the asset slightly above the average acquisition cost of buyers who entered the market a minimum of 30 days and a maximum of 90 days ago. This cost is $74,000.
According to investment firm Grayscale, This movement suggests the beginning of new bullish cycle of bitcoin as the need for investors to liquidate their positions reduces.
The chart below shows two lines: the current price (orange) and the realized price of coins moved in the last 1 to 3 months (blue dots). When the current price crosses above the realized price, as is happening now, the market exits a state of “latent loss” and enters a profit.
This change in trend is based on the behavior of buyers who purchased the currency in the last ninety days. “Analysts typically focus on a measure called the ‘realized price,’ or the weighted average price at which coins moved on-chain,” explains Grayscale. This metric reflects the actual value invested in the market, unlike the current trading price which only shows the last trade made.
In this context, the firm highlights that the recovery of capital has restored confidence to those who bought near the previous highs. Since the market price is above the realized price, investors have emerged from a state of latent loss, where the value of their asset was lower than what they originally paid.
The transition towards a profitable territory is seen by Grayscale as a catalyst for a prolonged rise in the price. “If the price of bitcoin rises further in the coming days, more recent buyers would take profits, which may be an indicator of the first phase of a bull market,” the report details. According to the firm, although bitcoin is below its October highs, the fact that the price has crossed above recent buy points indicates that the market has bottomed in the $65,000 to $70,000 range.
However, Grayscale’s interpretation of $74,000 as a solid floor is not necessarily support, but rather a conflict zone that ignores the psychological factor of investors. There is a latent risk related to survival bias, since those who endured the fall to $63,000 could see the current recovery as an “exit door” to get your money back without losses after months of financial stress.
On the other hand, bitcoin faces the challenge of absorbing the massive supply of those who want to sell at the break-even point. To consolidate the bullish cycle, the asset must overcome a resistance at $76,000, a price level where a large number of sell orders are concentrated, as reported by CriptoNoticias. This requires that the flow of “new money” from new buyers be significantly stronger than “old money” seeking to liquidate positions.
Meanwhile, the outlook is complicated by geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East and the tense relationship between Iran and the United States. While Grayscale’s optimism is evident, any failure in international diplomacy could cause investors to flee towards traditional safe haven assets. This scenario would invalidate bitcoin’s bullish structure, returning its price to the minimum zone and nullifying the reduction in selling pressure achieved in April.