For the executive, bitcoin will not only reach that price but will set a new record.
The analysis highlights the deterioration of the dollar’s role in energy trade on a global scale.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, explained the reasons why he maintains a “maximum risk” stance in the bitcoin and cryptocurrency market. Its central thesis suggests that Bitcoin will reach a value between $125,000 and $145,000 before the end of this year, driven by a reconfiguration of the international financial system and the state’s need to finance conflicts through monetary expansion.
hayes holds that the stability of the US dollar as a global reserve currency depends on its ability to facilitate frictionless trade. However, the ongoing conflict in Iran and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have introduced significant logistical obstacles.
According to the analyst, when the flow of critical goods such as oil or fertilizers is interrupted, the marginal utility of holding dollar reserves decreases for importing nations.
The report details that countries outside Washington’s direct sphere of influence are beginning to diversify their reserves. The trend shows a shift from US Treasuries towards assets like gold or the Chinese yuan.
Hayes argues that this change is not ideological, but practical; if the dollar system no longer guarantees the timely delivery of energy supplies, economic agents will look for alternative financial architectures, according to Hayes.
The transition to a war economy
One of the most relevant points of Hayes’ analysis is the transformation of American fiscal policy. The analyst observes that, given the decrease in foreign demand for public debt, the government has not opted for austerity, but rather for maintaining high spending on defense and domestic subsidies.
In this “war economy” context, the Federal Reserve and the commercial banking system become the buyers of last resort of government debt.
Hayes points out that, although a quantitative easing (QE) program is not formally announced, there is a “stealth” expansion of balance sheets.
It estimates that liquidity is increasing at a constant rate, which devalues the purchasing power of fiat currencies and directly benefits assets with an algorithmically limited supply, as reported by CriptoNoticias. For Hayes, traditional metrics such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) they lose relevance in the face of the political need to finance industrial and military production.
Market projections and Bitcoin
Under this growing liquidity scheme, Hayes places bitcoin as the main beneficiary. The forecast of reaching $145,000 by the end of the year is based on the premise that central banks will not allow credit deflation or a collapse of the regional banking system.
Instead, the institutional response to any sign of crisis will be the injection of capital, a mechanism that has historically served as a catalyst for the price of digital assets.
In addition to bitcoin, Hayes highlights the role of emerging protocols such as Hyperliquid, which enable the trading of commodities and traditional assets in a decentralized manner.
The analyst highlights that the ability to operate global markets without weekend interruptions is a competitive advantage that will attract massive capital flows from the traditional financial system (TradFi) to the bitcoin and cryptocurrency ecosystem.
Hayes’ approach presents a Bitcoin strengthened not only by technological adoption, but by the fragility of current macroeconomic structures. The combination of rising public debt, persistent geopolitical conflicts and constant intervention by central banks creates, in his opinion, the ideal environment for a historic revaluation of the bitcoin market in 2026.