Donald Trump loves to issue ultimatums, even if they are not enforced. The US President issued a similar deadline in early April, putting immense pressure on Iran, before announcing a 14-day ceasefire just as the deadline was about to expire. This deadline also passed without any result and was extended again. It’s worth noting that the most recent agreement does not have a specific expiration date.
Trump now says the US will not attack Iran until it presents a new proposal to end the conflict and that discussions are concluded “one way or another”.
However, the US Navy will continue the blockade of Iranian ports.
Three scenarios between peace and war: what will happen next?
The 14-day ceasefire enabled the first direct talks between the US and Iran in nearly a decade, but a lack of trust on both sides has so far prevented a second round of talks. On several occasions, the possibility of new meetings in Islamabad brokered by Pakistan looked promising, but these were again postponed or canceled altogether.
America is insisting on a 15-point plan, while Iran has its own 10 demands. But neither side would like to maintain the current state of uncertainty indefinitely. So two additional, completely different scenarios are possible. Both parties can renegotiate, narrow the gap between their positions and ultimately reach a peaceful agreement. Otherwise the situation will continue to deteriorate and the tense military situation in the Strait of Hormuz will increase – in which case fighting could resume.
What are the main roots of dispute between America and Iran?
Two of the US’s 15 demands figure centrally: Iran must give up its nuclear program, and it must enable free passage for ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
On the nuclear issue, Trump cannot afford to back away from concessions made in the nuclear deal co-negotiated by his predecessor Barack Obama. Trump unilaterally withdrew from the agreement in 2018, and reimposed many of the previously lifted sanctions, claiming it would give him a “better deal.”
US media reported that the recent talks were mainly based on the issue of timelines. He says Iran was ready to halt its nuclear program for five years, but the US insisted on remaining without uranium enrichment for at least 20 years. There was also disagreement over how it could be monitored and what would happen to the enriched uranium Iran already possessed.
Another major issue has arisen since the war started on 28 February. Iran’s response to the attack by the United States and Israel was to block civilian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for international trade. When the regime in Tehran realized how effectively it was able to enforce this blockade, it introduced the idea of some form of toll.
Imposing tolls is economically attractive for Iran, and as the rest of the world is already beginning to experience shortages of fuel and other goods, it also provides tremendous benefits to Tehran. As recently as Wednesday – following the extension of the ceasefire – Iran announced that its Revolutionary Guards had attacked three cargo ships in the strait.
America is not at all ready to accept the blockade. In mid-April, President Trump imposed a blockade on all ships trying to reach or leave Iranian ports. Therefore Iran is currently cut off from access to these economically important trade routes. The return of free passage to shipping, as before the war, would now have to be secured by an international naval mission so that shipping companies would no longer have to fear for the safety of ships and crews sailing through the Strait of Hormuz.
What other issues might affect the prospects for reconciliation?
The war has harmed the US president domestically. Parts of his own MAGA movement have distanced themselves from him because he broke his own promise that the US would not engage in lengthy and costly military campaigns abroad. The economic impact of the blockade is being felt in the US as well as the rest of the world, and not just at the pump. So it’s possible that Trump may have decided not to issue another ultimatum so as not to force himself to take action.
Additionally, there are midterm elections coming up in six months’ time, when American citizens will decide the makeup of Congress. If Republicans lose their majority to the Democrats, there will be serious consequences for Trump. This increases the pressure on it even more: on the one hand, not to be completely caught up in a long war; And, on the other hand, to achieve favorable results.
Iran’s regime under the new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is presumably in less of a hurry, although, in practice, the US blockade is also hurting the Iranian economy. However, this is not necessarily the case for the Revolutionary Guards, which experts now describe as a “state within a state” – and whose influence has grown even greater as a result of the conflict. It is seen that the Revolutionary Guards are more interested in governing rather than reducing tensions.
And there is another important factor: the war was started by both the US and Israel. The war goals of the Israeli government and its Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are not the same as those of the United States. Israel is within range of its arch-enemy Iran’s rockets; Its security interests are therefore existential in nature. The conflict between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon has flared up again, along with airstrikes on Iran. In the first few days of the ceasefire between the US and Iran, Israel continued heavy bombing of Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Here too, a Trump-brokered ceasefire is now in place, primarily between Israel and the Lebanese state. The calculation is that if Israel and Lebanon, which have been officially at war since the establishment of the State of Israel in 1948, were to truly normalize their relations, and if, as part of that process, Beirut disarmed Hezbollah, it would be beneficial to Israel’s security. However, it is by no means certain that this outcome can be achieved – and this peace process is also closely linked to ongoing developments between the US and Iran.
This article has been translated from German.