Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has been compared to supply disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and US President Donald Trump’s new tariff regime.
The pandemic exposed the world’s heavy reliance on China to manufacture everything from electronics to medical gear, while Trump’s tariffs implemented last year also accelerated efforts to cut that reliance.
The war in Iran has exposed another weakness: how quickly a disruption in vital raw materials such as oil, gas and fertilizer can hit global trade.
The International Energy Agency described the loss of about 10% of the world’s oil supplies and a fifth of global liquefied natural gas last month as the biggest loss in the history of the global energy market.
Shock to demand and then supply
While the pandemic dealt a blow to broader demand and Trump’s tariffs prompted sustained shifts in supply chains, Iran has dealt a sharp supply-side shock focused on energy and commodities.
The nature of the shocks may be different, but their impact on companies seems to be the same, said Sebastian Janssen, partner at New York-based global management consulting firm Oliver Wyman. “COVID exposed overdependence on a manufacturing hub, while Hormuz exposed overdependence on a transportation corridor and energy inputs,” a supply chain analyst told DW.
During the pandemic, factories closed, ships docked at major ports and just-in-time systems – which keep inventories low and rely on parts arriving when needed – buckled. Yet energy prices remained relatively stable. This time, non-energy trade has been far better.
Supply chain expert Lisa Anderson, president of LMA Consulting Group, believes back-to-back crises have changed how many companies now assess risk.
“COVID put companies in a position where they realized they couldn’t just rely on supply when they needed it,” Anderson told DW. “The Iran war shows that this was not a one-time event.”
The crisis in Hormuz is far from reaching its peak
However, rising oil, gas and fertilizer prices have already forced governments to revise down their inflation forecasts, as the risk of widespread disruption to goods trade still looms.
In the past month, shipping companies have again been forced to suddenly change routes – the last time being in 2023/24 when Yemen-based Houthis attacked ships around the Red Sea.
Tankers and gas carriers that once passed through Hormuz now take a long detour around South Africa’s Cape of Good Hope. This adds thousands of nautical miles and up to two weeks of time to many voyages.
War-risk insurance premiums for ships in the Middle East have soared, adding several million dollars to each transit. These costs are contributing to already high prices of energy, chemicals and manufactured goods.
Full economic impact pending
Yet additional costs are only part of the challenge. Making supply chains more resilient is proving particularly difficult because the full impact of the disruption has not yet been felt, Janssen said.
“[The impact of this] Shortages are still prevalent in companies’ multi-level supply chains… [and] “It will take several months for the full impact to be seen and for the supply chain to stabilize once the strait fully reopens,” he said.
Those concerns are widespread. A survey of 6,000 companies in 13 countries found that nearly two-thirds of companies are concerned about further disruption to supply chains and higher energy and commodity prices due to the war.
ResearchThe report, published April 8 by Allianz Trade, the business research arm of Germany’s Allianz Group, showed a rise in plans to accelerate so-called reshoring or nearshoring – the practice of moving production and suppliers closer to home or to more stable neighboring countries. This change is particularly evident in Europe.
“One way to avoid major bottlenecks is to bring manufacturing closer to where the customers are,” Anderson told DW.
Geopolitical risks are now considered strategic
Apart from the immediate Hormuz disruption, some changes in global trade patterns may now be permanent. The survey found that geopolitical risks, including war and tariffs, have become the top concern for two-thirds of companies, a number that has increased sharply since 2025.
Companies that were heavily dependent on China are increasingly adopting a +1 or +2 approach to trade and adding at least one additional country to their supply chains to reduce risk. India, Indonesia, Vietnam and Malaysia are benefiting the most, while the research also shows interest in Europe as a manufacturing destination is growing.
Just-in-time manufacturing is increasingly giving way to a “just-in-case” approach. Factories are once again increasing inventory buffers, with safety stockpiles reaching the highest level in three years, according to supply chain software giant GEP’s March 2026 Global Supply Chain Volatility Index.
This reflects a pattern seen during the pandemic and around Trump’s tariffs, when companies rushed to build a buffer against uncertainty and potential shortages.
As companies prepare for a future impacted by additional geopolitical shocks, from tensions over Taiwan to instability on the Korean Peninsula, many have concluded that true resiliency requires flexibility, redundancies and strong strategic partnerships throughout their supply networks.
John Sfakianakis, head of economic research at Saudi Arabia’s Gulf Research Centre, warned in a recent article that vulnerability today is less about dependence and more about “resilience in interconnected systems” such as energy, finance, logistics and political cohesion.
“Iran is not so much a regional conflict as it is a stress test of how the international system works under pressure,” Stakianaksi said.
Edited by: Srinivas Majumdaru