At the time of this publication, the odds are tied.
The fall that bitcoin has had in recent hours increased bearish expectations.
The decentralized prediction platform, Polymarket, registers this Tuesday, April 28, 2026, a 50% technical tie in the probabilities that the price of bitcoin (BTC) will first reach $60,000 or $80,000.
This balance in betting arises after a day of high volatility. On Sunday, April 26, bitcoin hit a high of $79,400but subsequently experienced a decline that took it to $76,251, the level at which it is today.
The platform’s regulations are strict to define the winner of the bet and avoid ambiguities. “This market will settle at the lowest price indicated in the title if the price of bitcoin falls to that level or below before reaching the highest price indicated,” they explain the official rules.
Instead, it will resolve to the higher value if bitcoin “first reaches that level or above before falling to the lowest indicated price” during the same period.
Price data will be taken exclusively from the “Maximum” and “Minimum” values of the BTC/USDT pair on Binance, the exchange with the highest trading volume in the world. If bitcoin does not touch either level by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET, according to Polymarket rules, “the bet will be settled 50% neutral” for all participants involved.
So far, this bet has raised $1.6 million. The fact that users deposit real money gives a high dose of credibility to Polymarket’s results, much greater than that of a simple survey.
As explained by Criptopedia, the educational section of CriptoNoticias, Polymarket is a decentralized platform in which users buy and sell contracts based on the outcome of future events.
In this specific case, the proximity to $80,000 until recently maintained a clear advantage for the bullish option, but the recent fall has strengthened the position of those who expect a greater correction towards 60,000 dollars.