On May 3, 2026, the prediction platform Polymarket enabled a market that allows you to bet with real money on who will be the next president of Argentina, within the framework of the elections scheduled for October 2027.
Betting at Polymarket locate the current president, Javier Milei, as a favorite, with a probability of 47%followed by the governor of the province of Buenos Aires Axel Kicillof with 41%.
Further back, other names appear such as the vice president of the Nation, Victoria Villarruel (7%), the former president of the Nation, Mauricio Macri (3%), senator Patricia Bullrich (2%) and the former Minister of Economy of the Nation, Sergio Massa (1%).
The market contemplates the final result of the Argentine presidential election, including a possible second round. That is to say, It is not defined by the winner of the first round, but by whoever finally takes office after a possible runoff.
It should be noted that Polymarket is currently blocked for users located in Argentina. According to information shared by users operating on the platform, some participants resort to DNS changes (such as Cloudflare’s 1.1.1.1 service) or virtual private networks (VPN) to try to enter.
In the event that there is no definitive result within the established period (for example, in the event of an electoral suspension or an institutional conflict) the market is settled under an alternative categorywhich implies the loss of positions associated with specific candidates.
The resolution of the result is in charge of UMA (Universal Market Access), a system of decentralized oracles that allows real-world information (such as election results) to be verified to solve digital markets.
In this case, will use official data from the National Electoral Chamber and press reports to determine the outcome of the event.
With the advancement of the electoral calendar, this market could reflect variations in expectations about the candidates in real time, according to the evolution of the Argentine political scenario.
Polymarket has gained relevance as an indicator of the positioning of participants in political and financial events, including the US presidential elections in 2024. By involving real money, Their prices reflect market expectations rather than simple statements of intent.
As CriptoNoticias has reported, the research team at Grayscale, a firm specialized in investment in digital assets, maintains that this platform is considered a “source of truth”, combining economic incentives, transparency in transaction records and aggregation of information distributed among users.