US stocks could become less attractive to investors, says Hayes.
The development of AI would be used by States as an excuse to print more money.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX and macroeconomic strategist, published his most recent market analysis titled “The Touch of the Butterfly” on May 11, 2026. In it, he ensures that the bull market for bitcoin (BTC) and cryptocurrencies has regained its strength after a period of geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
As Hayes says in his analysis“bitcoin bottomed earlier this year at $60,000” and current global liquidity conditions make “recovering $126,000 a foregone conclusion.”
The following chart shows how bitcoin has moved so far this year. There we see the arrival of $60,000 in February, a level that – according to Hayes – would have been the bottom of the price drop:
Hayes’ hypothesis is not based solely on price charts, but on a Structural transformation of the global economy driven by war, the race for artificial intelligence (AI), and the end of American hegemony as guarantor of world trade.
AI as a money printing engine
For Hayes, Artificial intelligence is not just a technological trend, but a national security imperative which will force central banks to print money massively.
The leaders of the US and China, Trump and Xi, consider “AI and technological supremacy to be fundamental to the survival of their respective empires,” says the businessman.
This competition, according to Hayes, generates unprecedented capital spending that can no longer be covered by technology companies’ revenues alone. Hayes Sentence:
The capital investment going into training and inference of AI models and agents is unprecedented in the history of human civilization. Many argue that this investment in artificial intelligence is different, in terms of the value it will generate for humanity, from any other technological development. I agree; However, as humans, we always tend to exaggerate. In this universe, infinity and perfection are unattainable. Therefore, we may build too much in anticipation of an AI-driven future. AI promoters invoke nationalism as a justification for spending exorbitant amounts of money on developing AI capabilities, using the nation-state as a clever way to hide the level of capital waste.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX.
Hayes argues that “the magnitude of current and future capital spending now requires an increase in financing through the credit channel. (…) Central or commercial banks will provide the capital that technology magnates need.
Because winning this race is vital for states, the BitMEX co-founder states that “any criticism by monetary policymakers about the inflationary effects of a massive expansion of credit in dollars or yuan is prohibited.” This AI-focused “construction orgy” creates the perfect environment for bitcoinsince there will be a constant expansion of the monetary supply of fiat money.
The collapse of the ‘pax Americana’ and the change in reserves
One of the most critical points of the analysis is the impact of the war between the United States and Iran, which began on February 28, 2026. Hayes argues that this conflict demonstrated that the world can no longer trust that the “pax “American” defends the free flow of basic products.
Let us remember that, as CriptoNoticias has reported, since the beginning of that war The Strait of Hormuz, a maritime passage through which 20% of the world’s oil production circulates, remains blocked.
As a result, sovereign nations could change their investment strategy. Hayes points out that For many countries “it makes no sense to own US Treasury bonds or an S&P 500 ETF when you can’t get food or energy”. This will lead to a marginal liquidation of financial assets in dollars to reinvest in physical infrastructure and storage of raw materials.
It is worth clarifying that this is something that would not yet be happening massively. At the time of this publication, May 12, 2026, the S&P500 index is at all-time highs, as seen in the image below:
To avoid an uncontrolled fall in US markets in the face of this sale of foreign assets, Hayes predicts that the Treasury and the Federal Reserve will use dollar swap lines (swap lines). The logic is the following:
If a friendly country needs cash to invest in the needs I mentioned above, the Federal Reserve or Treasury can lend it to them through a dollar swap line. In this way, said country does not have to sell assets in dollars or negatively affect the market; you simply take out a loan with them as collateral.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX.
The final result of these maneuvers would be a massive increase in the amount of dollars in circulationwhich directly benefits scarce supply assets like bitcoin.
The road to $126,000
Hayes notes that since the start of the conflict in Iran, Bitcoin has begun to outperform other risk assets such as gold and technology stocks.
Although many investors remain on the sidelines due to the relative poor performance of bitcoin in the last two years, the businessman believes that “it will demonstrate its sensitivity to an expansion of fiat liquidity.”
The author anticipates that the upward movement will accelerate significantly in the short term:
I expect the rally to intensify and the naysayers to cower into a corner as bitcoin’s upward price trajectory becomes explosive after breaking above $90,000.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX.
While acknowledging that U.S. domestic politics and the midterm elections in November could create volatility, Hayes maintains his bullish stance on bitcoin. It even suggests that high oil prices may not weaken Trump politically, since they benefit the energy sector in key states of his electoral base.
Hayes increases his risk exposure with cryptocurrencies
Convinced that the bottom of the market is now behind us, Hayes has announced that he is taking his portfolio to “maximum risk.” In addition to bitcoin, the entrepreneur is betting on specific altcoins.
He mentions having sizable positions in hyperliquid (HYPE) and zcash (ZEC), but highlights near (NEAR) as his next favorite. Hayes argues that combining a privacy narrative with NEAR developments will generate positive cash flow for the protocol, which will “reverse the token’s disastrous price performance” and take it back to its all-time highs.
Hayes’ final sentence for this cycle is aggressive and direct: “It’s a bull market; Close your eyes and press the button. There will be a time to sell, but it is not now. Don’t screw up. “We are going to degenerate.”
Having said all this, it is vitally important to understand that Hayes’s opinions, like those of any other analyst, should be taken simply for what they are: potentially fallible opinions. Each investor is responsible for conducting his or her own research. CriptoNoticias has also recently reported that many other analysts have a bearish view on the price of bitcoin in the coming months.