As the US-Israel war with Iran captures the world’s attention, other crises, including Russia’s war in Ukraine, are receiving less attention. Now Kiev, fearing it will soon receive less American weapons, is preparing for a years-long war while Russia profits from skyrocketing oil and gas prices. This is one side of the proverbial coin.
On the other hand, there is a real deadlock on the frontline. Neither side has been able to make any tangible gains in the area, and Ukraine has been increasing attacks on oil export infrastructure deep into Russian territory. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approval ratings are reportedly falling amid increasing mobile internet blackouts.
As Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine enters its fifth year, Western observers and military analysts believe the war may soon be over. Talking to DW Kyiv Security Forum In April he said that the US midterm elections could play a decisive role in ending it.
Does Putin want to order another mobilization?
Noting the lack of movement on the front lines, international experts have long been speculating whether Putin might announce another mobilization as he ordered in late 2022. Ukrainian military experts, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky who was recently quoted, say they would not rule it out.
Evelyn Farkas, a foreign policy expert and former Pentagon-appointed member of the McCain Institute at Arizona State University, says she doesn’t believe Russia will attempt another large-scale call-up. As she sees it, the current difficulties facing Russia’s economy are what are holding it back.
Will Ukraine become less dependent on arms sales?
Despite the blockade in the Persian Gulf, Ukraine is in a stronger position than before, according to Kurt Volcker, who served as US President Donald Trump’s US special representative for Ukraine until 2019.
He believes that Kiev has significantly reduced its dependence on Western arms supplies and is instead able to meet “up to 60% or 70%” of its needs. This means that even if America stops providing weapons through European partners, it can continue the fight.
Exactly a year earlier, during a visit to the US, Zelensky had expressed concern that Ukraine would lose the war with Russia if the US withdrew support. But, Volcker says, that’s no longer the case.
He also said that the US can no longer guarantee that it will continue to supply missiles critical to Patriot air defense systems as before.
Volcker believes this is due to Trump’s “priorities”, which in this case favor war with Iran.
Will Zelensky be able to withstand American pressure?
Ukraine’s president recently commented that he expects Trump to increase pressure on him as the midterm elections approach to ensure that Ukraine accepts Russia’s armistice terms. These also include Ukraine withdrawing troops from the parts of Donbass over which it currently controls. Farkas believes that Zelensky will be able to withstand this pressure.
Instead, national security experts expect Trump’s administration to end its war with Iran by the summer, clear the Strait of Hormuz for maritime traffic, and turn its attention to “regime change” in Cuba. She says that even in this scenario she would not expect the White House to put much pressure on Kiev. On the contrary – it could weaken Russia, as it maintains strategic ties with the island.
serious talk after midterms
Farkas and Volcker agree that the November midterm House elections will be a turning point, as it could weaken Trump’s position in the Republican Party.
“This will be enough to put pressure on the U.S. government to continue its support for Ukraine and to continue its support for NATO,” says Farkas.
NATO Military Committee Chairman Giuseppe Cavo Dragone says it will be “difficult” to win this war on the battlefield, as Russia’s military remains “strong” despite mounting losses.
However, domestic economic conditions may prompt Moscow to consider a peace agreement.
“I don’t think Russia will ever agree to a peace deal with Ukraine,” says former US diplomat Volcker. “I think they may accept a ceasefire at some point. And I think we’re getting closer to that point.”
He further said that so far, negotiations to end the war have been a “farce”, but new circumstances in Russia and the losses his country has suffered in the war may force Putin to do so.
He argues, “What matters is reality. And the Russian reality has been substantially worse and is getting worse.” The expert says time is not in Moscow’s favor.
But even though analysts agree that a turning point is coming, they have differing opinions on how soon it could happen. Volcker says he would not rule out that there would be some significant change before the end of the year. The chances are “about 50%”.
Farkas, on the other hand, believes that “in 2027, we will see Ukrainians winning.”
This article was translated from German.