As Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni was sworn in on Tuesday, observers and political leaders across East Africa reflected on the trajectory of the man who in 1986 emerged from a country ravaged by military exhaustion and civil war to rule for 40 years.
Regional leaders including Democratic Republic of Congo President Félix Tshisekedi, Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan, Nigerian President Bola Tinubu and former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta traveled to the Ugandan capital Kampala for Museveni’s inauguration, highlighting his regional diplomatic status.
Despite winning the January elections by only 72% of the vote – amid reports of intimidation and kidnappings of opposition figures – many believe the 81-year-old is nearing the end of his time in office. But, according to Ugandans DW spoke to about what to expect from Museveni’s seventh consecutive term, there is still a lot to be done.
“Overall, there is peace in Uganda now. And when there is peace, economic activities grow and progress,” Ugandan academic Adolph Mbane told DW.
Uganda’s economic growth fails to reach young population
Most Ugandans seem to agree that under Museveni, Uganda has experienced significant political stability and economic growth – an achievement that should not be underestimated in a region plagued by armed insurgency and political unpredictability.
According to the World Bank, Uganda’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth is set to exceed 6% in 2024, and has remained relatively strong for decades – typically above 3% since the early 1990s. Uganda’s GDP to grow from $3.9 billion (€3.6 billion) in 1986 to over $53.9 billion in 2024.
Uganda’s population is expected to grow from just 15.5 million in 1986 to over 50 million in 2024, resulting in it having one of the youngest populations in the world, with a median age of approximately 17 years – while unemployment remains a major concern for young Ugandans.
“We have a very large population. Most of them are young and many of them are unemployed. It’s a time bomb,” Robert Kirabo, a journalist in Kampala, told DW.
“Ugandans want to see accountability,” development economist and MP Agnes Atim Appiah told DW. “They’re hearing that the economy is growing, but our people want to start feeling that growth now.”
Museveni recognized these factors in his inaugural speech, promising wealth creation, anti-corruption efforts, and improved service delivery in health, education, and infrastructure.
He called on East Africans to unite, saying: “When all Ugandan families join the money economy in the four sectors, there will be so many jobs that all our nearly 2 million refugees from the brother countries of Africa will have jobs.”
Museveni’s supporters were seen excited by his message on the streets of Kampala. David Ssekimpi, a pastor, said, “We have great confidence in President Museveni and that he will fulfill our dreams.”
Justus Kiiza, a street vendor, said: “In the last term, the president did not handle the affairs of traders and vendors adequately.”
Jovlet Sarah Nankinga, a student at Makerere University in Kampala, told DW that embezzlement of public funds is a problem, adding that the state also needs to “improve financing for youth and entrepreneurs.”
Apart from employment generation, there are also governance issues. Isaac Teniwa, a farmer from Namutumba in eastern Uganda, told DW that Uganda’s biggest obstacles will be dealing with growing disputes over land ownership, the government’s reluctance to change policies and a bloated administration.
“This requires reducing the number of staff, reducing the number of MPs, where most of the government revenue goes,” Teniwa said. “It’s really tough because it involves people losing their jobs and going back into the private sector.”
Ugandan politics has intensified
Rights groups and the United Nations have caution Civic space is shrinking and political repression is increasing in Uganda, citing arrests of opposition figures, media curbs, and tight control of civil society.
Ugandan opposition leader Bobi Wine was photographed driving through clouds of pepper spray to arrive at a rally before losing the election and leaving the country.
Longtime opposition politician Kizza Besigye was also detained ahead of the election.
“Over the past 15 years, I think we have seen less room for people to openly criticize government activities and programs and less tolerance for opposing views,” Mbane told DW.
This is in addition to strict anti-LGBTQ+ laws and the Ugandan Parliament passing the Sovereignty Protection Bill, which limits external funding for political parties.
Even away from the campaign trail, some elderly Ugandans like Henry Baguma in Kampala worry that the hardening political climate is affecting service delivery.
“Many things in this country have become so tribal, they have become so political. Tribalism is very dangerous,” he told DW. “Once that becomes the entry point, service delivery certainly becomes a challenge.”
Who will succeed Museveni?
Museveni’s tenure is until 2031 and he has not officially named a successor.
“This is a real concern for many of us because we thought there would be an orderly arrangement for a fairly clean political transition over time,” academic Mben told DW.
Museveni’s son, General Muhoozi Kainrugaba, is being considered as a possible candidate. The courageous 52-year-old has allies in Ugandan political circles, and he leads the Ugandan armed forces.
However, Kawarugaba’s military strength and confrontational style contrast with the charisma of Museveni, whose longevity is due to his ability to make deals with political rivals. Mbane described Museveni as “tolerant – much more so than some of the people who worked very closely with him”.
On Museveni’s larger-than-life personality, Agnes Atim Appiah commented: “I think as a country we need to start moving away from seeing Uganda as a Museveni thing.” Instead, she recommends “moving away from personalities, because good governance is always measured in terms of systems, efficiency and sustainability.”
Henry Baguma, who lived through the violence and instability of the 1970s and 1980s, told DW that Museveni had “done his best to set a better record for the future.”
He said, “I was here during the time of Idi Amin. Many people were killed, but some of us survived. Milton Obote came, we survived.”
But according to Adolphe Mabine, there is too much at stake for the success of a peaceful solution: “If we get something that is not even close to political change, it means that we have not learned anything. Because we could easily go back to the kind of anarchy that we thought the country had headed into.”
Frank Yiga contributed reporting in Kampala.
Edited by: Keith Walker