Santiment believes that “historically, cryptocurrencies move against expectations.”
Due to this sentiment, small investors may sell their coins.
The price of bitcoin (BTC) fell below $77,000, causing sentiment around the digital currency to deteriorate.
However, for the financial analysis firm Santiment, this increase in fear among small investors could become a positive signal for the market.
“Historically, digital assets move in the opposite direction to crowd expectations,” Santiment states in a analysis published on May 18, 2026.
According to the data provided by the firm, Currently there are only 0.94 bullish comments for every bearish comment about bitcoin on social networks. It is the first time, since April 21, that negative publications about this digital asset clearly predominate.
As seen, the previous graph combines several metrics. The white line represents the price of BTC, while the green and red bars show the volume of positive and negative comments on social networks. The yellow line, meanwhile, reflects the relationship between bullish and bearish messages.
When that last line exceeds the upper red zone (“FOMO Zone”), the market enters a stage of euphoria or excessive greed. On the other hand, when it falls towards the lower celestial zone (“FUD Zone”), fear predominates among small investors.
Currently, the indicator once again approached that fear zone. And Santiment analysts believe that “this level of pessimism from the retail investor is a great sign.”
The firm maintains that, As small traders sell their coins for fear of further declines, the chances of a price rebound increase.
However, this interpretation does not imply a guarantee of immediate recovery for BTC. In fact, different analysts have warned that the deterioration of the macroeconomic context and some technical signals could still push the price towards lower levels.
For example, Glassnode points out in its weekly reportpublished on May 18, that “the BTC market structure begins to weaken as momentum, spot demand, and speculative positioning decline.”
Additionally, the firm added that options market traders “are increasingly positioning themselves to protect themselves from downsides.”
The global context does not help assets considered risk either. The geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran continue to generate uncertainty in international markets. Added to this is the partial blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, a key sea route for global oil transportation, a situation that raises concerns about inflation and high interest rates.
This scenario reduces the chances that the US Federal Reserve (FED) will cut interest rates in the short term, limiting the liquidity available for BTC and cryptocurrencies.
In addition, health concerns persist after the World Health Organization (WHO) declared an international emergency on May 16 due to the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, as reported by CriptoNoticias.
Likewise, some traders began to revise their bullish projections. Michaël van de Poppe, who last week projected a movement of BTC towards $90,000, now considers that the $71,000 area could act as support if the declines continue.
Thus, the market faces two opposite readings. While firms like Santiment interpret extreme fear as a potentially bullish signal, other analysts consider that the macroeconomic and technical deterioration still leaves room for new falls in bitcoin.