The supply of short-term holders decreased by 2.2 million BTC since December.
The firm considers that continuity of the bullish cycle will depend on the arrival of new buyers.
Bitcoin was trading around USD 73,500 this Friday, May 29, a level that leaves it about 10% below the highs of USD 80,000 reached at the beginning of the month. Although the price still remains above $70,000, new data from CryptoQuant suggests that one of the most used indicators to measure bullish strength could actually be reflecting lower buying participation.
The firm warns that the market looks more fragile than it appears on the surface. Currently, 15.8 million BTC is listed as supply in the hands of long-term holders, but that figure does not necessarily speak of conviction, but rather an increasingly slow turnover. CryptoQuant estimates that the supply of short-term holders fell by approximately 2.2 million BTC since December; Of that total, about 900,000 BTC come from Coinbase reserves that exceeded the 155-day threshold to move into the long-term category. In other words, many coins simply stopped moving.
This cooling is also observed in large portfolios. Whale balances, defined as wallets with between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC, will record their fastest year-on-year decline in 2026while its monthly growth has remained close to zero since February, as CriptoNoticias indicated. In parallel, the so-called dolphins, with between 100 and 1,000 BTC, also show a notable slowdown after having reached a maximum of 970,000 BTC in October 2025, just when monthly flows into bitcoin ETFs touched $3.4 billion. The report identifies one of the clearest signs of institutional demand in this cohort.
Other indicators reinforce the same reading. Glassnode noted that spot demand weakened, inflows into ETFs declined from their previous peaks, and capital flows remain insufficient to sustain a prolonged advance above the cost basis near $78,000. Furthermore, as we see in the following graph, its Realized Profit/Loss ratio is 1.56, which indicates that investors continue to realize more gains than lossesbut with a moderate intensity. The level remains below the 2-5 range that historically typically accompanies the early stages of a strong bull market, suggesting that Bitcoin’s recent rally still lacks the conviction and new capital influx needed to support a sustained rally.
The behavior of the prediction market is along the same lines. A Polymarket contract on the BTC close on May 30 assigns about 84% probability to the price ending between USD 72,000 and USD 76,000. Despite these signals, CryptoQuant does not pose an imminent crash scenario. The firm clarifies that the changes observed correspond mainly to gradual transformations in the behavior of market participants. The main message of the report is that price developments alone are not enough to assess the real health of the bitcoin ecosystem.
Looking ahead to the coming weeks, market attention will be on bitcoin’s ability to attract new capital flows. For CryptoQuant, the continuity of the bullish cycle will largely depend on the appearance of buyers capable of absorbing the existing supply and revitalizing network activity. If demand manages to recover, the fundamentals could reinforce the positive trend that has characterized recent months. On the other hand, if the slowdown observed in whales, ETFs and other large institutional players persists, The market could enter a longer consolidation phase, marked by lateral movements and lower buying intensity. Rather than anticipating an immediate change in trend, the data puts a warning on the table: bitcoin’s future performance will depend not only on maintaining high prices, but also on recovering the flow of new participants that has historically driven the strongest stages of bull markets.