“global refugee crisis 2026The report published on Monday in Berlin is intended as a warning, according to co-editor Petra Bendel of the University of Erlangen-Nuremberg (Bavaria). In his presentation, he expressed concern about the impact of the Common European Asylum System (CEAS), a legal framework adopted in 2024 that will become legally binding in all EU member states on June 12: “We fear a further expansion of detention-like accommodation for asylum seekers in places outside the borders,” Bendel said.
She was particularly critical of the plan to concentrate refugees with no prospects of asylum in “return hubs”, repatriation centers located in third countries outside the European Union (EU). These are a central feature of the tough migration policy, which Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt of Germany’s conservative Christian Social Union (CSU) party has described as “innovative”.
However, to establish such centres, the EU will rely on “cooperation partners”, which it hopes to find in Africa. Tunisia and Egypt have been mentioned as alternatives, as they are separated from Europe only by the Mediterranean Sea. But more remote countries like Rwanda and Uganda are also reportedly being considered.
Abandoning the resettlement program for Afghanistan
In the future, people seeking protection will face even greater difficulties than before, Brendel said: “We expect particularly vulnerable groups and individuals to be further marginalised.”
For Brendel, the resettlement program for the people of Afghanistan is an example. More people are at risk of persecution by the radical Taliban and many refugees remain stranded in Pakistan since the German government stopped them. Brendel argued, “When I say that the German state must fulfill its responsibility to provide security, this is what I mean.”
Germany has seen a decline in numbers
Frank Duval, a migration researcher at Osnabruck University, described the EU reform as “poorly designed”. They say that in the worst case, this could lead to overlapping structures and result in the rollback of refugee rights as well as the rights of children, women and families.
Duvel said there has been a significant decline in the number of refugees coming to Germany: in 2023, 330,000 people applied for asylum in the country; Two years later, the number was only 113,000. And the trend continues: in the first quarter of 2026, almost 22,000 asylum applications were registered; Estimating the full year, the total may ultimately be less than 90,000.
According to the 2026 report, more than 117 million people are currently displaced around the world. This figure has doubled in the last decade. The majority of these are internally displaced persons (IDPs) who have sought refuge from war in their home areas or from the impacts of climate change, including drought and floods. The report found that only a fraction of the world’s IDPs ended up in Europe and North America.
The numbers were declining not only in Germany. The report shows that there are 1.5 to 2 million fewer refugees in Türkiye, Iran and Sudan. And although Russia’s war against Ukraine continued with less intensity, Duval said 4 million Ukrainians, who had fled to other parts of Ukraine or EU countries, have returned to their home towns and villages.
Syria: is withdrawal completely unrealistic?
What is at least partially possible in Ukraine is completely unrealistic for Syria, according to the report’s authors: “It is a completely devastated country; the entire infrastructure is in ruins, and economically, hardly anything is working,” said Benjamin Etzold of the Bonn International Center for Conflict Studies (BCC).
There is hunger and extreme poverty everywhere, he warned, “but above all, ethnic and religious minorities will have no protection under the new regime in the country.” Thus he considered it unrealistic to expect a large-scale withdrawal into Syria in the near future.
Etzold said Germany should continue to work to strengthen the United Nations and refugee organizations. “But we are also seeing a decline in Germany,” he said, adding that humanitarian aid has been halved and the German development cooperation budget has been cut fresh.
This article was originally published in German.