There is already some evidence that SpaceX’s pre-IPO has “stolen” capital from bitcoin.
SpaceX is expected to reach a valuation of around $1.75 trillion.
SpaceX, the aerospace company founded by Elon Musk, plans to debut on Nasdaq this June 12, 2026 through an initial public offering (IPO). The operation is valued at $75 billion and would be the largest IPO in history.
The IPO of this company could represent additional pressure for the price of bitcoin (BTC) thatat the time of publication of this note, on June 11, is trading above $62,800.
As CriptoNoticias has reported, this hypothesis is gaining strength for a simple reason: part of the liquidity of the BTC market would be migrating to SpaceX and other large technology companies that are preparing their arrival on Wall Street.
Interest in SpaceX is already reflected within the digital asset ecosystem itself. Currently, at least five exchanges offer access to pre-IPO markets linked to the company, allowing users to speculate on its valuation before the shares officially begin trading.
One fact that fuels the capital rotation theory is the performance of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States over the past few weeks. Since May 15, These instruments accumulate more than 5,000 million dollars in net outflows and registered withdrawals in 17 of the last 18 daysas seen in the following graph.
The magnitude of these exits coincides with the growing interest in so-called mega-IPOs. In addition to SpaceX, companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic are also considering going public this year.
According to Reuters, SpaceX would reserve up to 30% of the offerabout 22.5 billion dollars, for retail investors, an unusual decision in operations of this scale and which considerably expands the base of potential buyers.
That dynamic could be draining capital from other risk assets. “We have to find $75 billion for this IPO, and that money has to come from somewhere,” said Spencer Hallarn, global head of over-the-counter trading at GSR.
For his part, Thomas Puech, CEO of the trading firm INDIGO, also considered a capital rotation likely. «A SpaceX IPO would likely attract capital from the cryptocurrency market, at least initially. “Both compete for the same risk capital,” he noted.
An unfavorable context for bitcoin
The possible competition for liquidity comes at a delicate time for BTC. In recent weeks, the market has faced a combination of negative factors, including persistent inflation in the United States, strong capital outflows from ETFs, and geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East.
On this last point, the main focus is on the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime corridor located between Iran and Oman through which (under normal conditions) close to 20% of the world’s oil circulates. The interruption in that path puts pressure on energy prices, fuels inflation and deteriorates the appetite for risk assets.
Added to this was the first sale of BTC carried out by Strategy in four years, a fact that, although it had little impact from a quantitative point of view, broke a narrative that had served as a reference for numerous institutional investors.
For that reason, attributing the crash exclusively to SpaceX would be an oversimplification. However, The magnitude of upcoming IPOs could be accelerating a reallocation of capital toward the U.S. stock market.
Could money go back to bitcoin?
The analysis firm BloFin maintains that this phenomenon could be temporary.
This first stage consists of an absorption of liquidity towards large IPOs. Later, when lock-up periods that prevent shares from being sold to employees and early investors expire (typically about 180 days after the stock market debut), some of that capital could flow back into assets considered risky, such as BTC and cryptocurrencies.
Taking into account that SpaceX will begin trading on the stock market this June 12, These unlocks would begin to occur towards the end of 2026. OpenAI and Anthropic could add new rounds of liquidity during 2027 if they complete their own public offerings.
According to BloFin, the same cycle that could be sucking liquidity out of BTC today could later become a source of new capital flows for the digital currency. The thesis is that, once the first investors and employees begin to make profits, part of those funds would once again look for opportunities in assets with greater volatility.
Aside from the hypotheses put forward by different analysts, the reality is that the launch of SpaceX occurs when bitcoin is going through one of the most complex periods of 2026. It will be key to pay attention to the events to determine if the asset manages to get out of the downtrend in the short term.