Bitcoin (BTC) surpassed USD 63,000 yesterday, Thursday, June 11, 2026, after it was learned that US President Donald Trump canceled the military attacks planned against Iran for that night.
The US president announced this on TruthSocial, ensuring that talks with the Islamic Republic of Iran reached the highest level of his leadership and that an agreement had been approved by all parties involved, including the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and Egypt.
According to Trump, the naval blockade will remain in effect until the “transaction” is finalized, and the date and location of the signing will be announced soon.
As CriptoNoticias reported yesterday, the news worked as an immediate catalyst for the bitcoin market. After spending several days near USD 60,000 and even hitting annual lows at the beginning of June, bitcoin reacted upwards and recovered the USD 63,000 area, a level it had not seen for several days.
The chart below shows how the price of bitcoin has moved over the last 30 days.
An agreement that is not yet final
However, the euphoria must be tempered with the nuances provided by the information available this Friday, June 12. Reuters reports that hopes for peace between Iran and the United States grew after Trump said a deal could be signed this weekend, although Tehran clarified that has not yet made a final decision on the pact.
If confirmed, the deal would be the most significant diplomatic breakthrough yet to end a three-month war that has already caused thousands of deaths and sent global energy prices soaring after Iran almost completely closed the Strait of Hormuz to maritime traffic.
Trump was categorical before the press at the White House: “We just reached a great agreement for the war with Iran,” he said, adding that the strait “will officially open as soon as we sign, which could be very soon, maybe this weekend in Europe.” Asked whether Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, had given his approval, Trump replied: “I understand the answer is yes.”
But, it is worth remembering that Since mid-March, Trump has been repeating that an agreement with Iran is closewhile both sides exchanged attacks this week, straining a ceasefire announced in April.
This war has already accumulated months of back and forth, broken ceasefires and new escalations. Trump’s own pattern of announcements, promising an imminent agreement since March without it coming to fruition, invites us to read yesterday’s news with caution. The market, however, usually reacts to the headline first and processes the nuances later.
Added to this is the internal political dimension in the United States. The conflict has become a headache for the White House, with polls showing declines in Trump’s approval due to voter anger over high gas prices, and some Republicans fear the unpopularity of the war will cost them control of Congress in the November elections.
And at the regional level, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office clarified, after speaking with Trump, that Israel is not part of the memorandum of understanding with Iran, which leaves open a question about how solid the front of countries that, according to Trump, have already given their approval, really is.
The other side of the coin: SpaceX debuts on Wall Street
While the market was celebrating the geopolitical respite, this same Friday, June 12, 2026, another event occurs that could work in the opposite direction for bitcoin: SpaceX, Elon Musk’s aerospace company, begins trading on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX, in what would be the largest stock market launch in history.
As CriptoNoticias announced, this IPO occurs in the midst of what BloFin Research analysts describe as “the largest mega-IPO cycle” in recent history, which also includes OpenAI and Anthropic. Altogether, this cycle of new stock launches could absorb more than $240 billion from the market before the end of 2026.
Spot bitcoin ETFs in the United States have been seeing sustained net outflows since mid-May, a sign that some institutional capital is rotating toward these new opportunities in the traditional market.
The logic is simple: when an operation of this magnitude needs to find tens of billions of dollars, that money comes from somewhere, and bitcoin—along with other assets considered “risky”—is one of the most likely candidates to finance that demand.
Bitcoin is thus caught between two forces that pull in opposite directions on the same day: on the one hand, a possible de-escalation in the Middle East that would reduce inflationary pressure linked to oil and improve appetite for risk assets; on the other, a historic IPO that could drain liquidity from the segment where BTC competes for capital.
Some analysts, such as those at BloFin, maintain that this drain would be temporary and that money could flow back into bitcoin towards the end of the year, when stock lock-up periods for SpaceX employees and early investors expire. But that is, for now, a hypothesis for the future.
The concrete thing is that bitcoin goes through one of the most volatile stretches of 2026where every headline—whether it’s about Iran, the Federal Reserve, or the next big tech IPO—can move the price in a matter of hours.
It will be necessary to closely monitor whether the signing of the agreement with Iran actually takes place this weekend, and how the flow of capital reacts once SpaceX shares begin to operate normally on Nasdaq.