“Ships of the world, start your engines,” US President Donald Trump said as he announced a deal with Iran to end the conflict he started with Israel more than three months ago.
Online posts on Sunday also saw Trump “fully authorizing” the toll-free reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
“Let the oil flow!” He added.
The US and Iran are scheduled to sign a memorandum of understanding (MOU) in Geneva later this week. With details still secret, Trump later said that Hormuz would “fully reopen” only after the agreement was signed.
But unconfirmed reports on the MOU published in pro-regime Iranian media claim that Tehran’s future role in Hormuz is still under negotiation. Fars news agency reported that “Iranian-Omani sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz” was added to the talks at the last minute, while claiming that the US had “accepted” that Iran would be paid fees.
Asked for clarification on Monday, US Vice President JD Vance told CNBC news outlet that Washington’s “expectation is that the strait will be opened in a toll-free manner for the long term,” adding, “That’s the kind of thing we’re going to have to figure out in these technical negotiations.”
Exposing the limits of American power
Ambiguity aside, it is clear that despite Washington’s overwhelming military power, the US is not able to dictate terms to Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
Furthermore, Iran’s ability to use drones, mines, and small boats to shut down the free movement of shipping has cast an uncomfortable light on the role of American power in protecting freedom of navigation and ensuring free trade.
“Iran was shown America’s extraordinary military power – and its inability to translate those capabilities into anything like a strategic victory,” said Rebecca Lissner, senior fellow for US foreign policy and director of the Future of American Strategy Initiative at the US Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).
“This is a blow to America’s image as a global superpower and weakens its position as the guarantor of freedom of navigation. This war has left the United States in a weaker position than when the war began,” he told DW.
Iran’s new leverage
Trump laid out a series of objectives when launching the war, including the “destruction” of Iran’s conventional navy. At least this seems to have served one purpose – the Center for International and Strategic Studies (CSIS) assessed That “Iran lost most of its naval capabilities in less than 10 days.”
But Iran did not need a conventional navy to hold shipping hostage in the Strait of Hormuz. And its drone-based asymmetric strikes on Gulf energy facilities proved an effective deterrent against US tensions. Tehran’s proxies in Yemen and Lebanon also remain a threat.
US-Israeli airstrikes have also taken away much of the Islamic Republic’s leadership and humiliated its military. At the same time, the conflict has made life very difficult for ordinary Iranians, who faced a brutal crackdown when they protested against the regime in the weeks before the war. Trump has neither mentioned their fate, nor the idea of ”regime change” since the first weeks of the conflict.
And regionally, relations between Tehran and neighboring Gulf states have also deteriorated, indicating prolonged regional instability. Gulf countries are also questioning the credibility of the US security umbrella after their civilian infrastructure and energy facilities were left unprotected.
Who holds the keys of Hormuz?
Still, the key strategic issue going forward is the Strait of Hormuz, with the world waiting to see if the US will give Iran even partial control over shipping through the waterway.
“Even if this deal succeeds in reopening the strait, Iran now has leverage it didn’t have before,” said Lissner, who served as deputy national security adviser to former US Vice President Kamala Harris.
“The United States has shown itself unable or unwilling to pressure Iran to reopen the strait, which means the world will live with the risk that Iran could close the strait again at will,” he said.
And with the Iranian regime blocking the world’s energy supply for months, it’s not clear why they would hand over that leverage without getting something in return.
A widely reported part of the MOU is that Iran is receiving approximately $12 billion (€10.34 billion) of its frozen funds even before nuclear talks begin, which would be equivalent to a payment for reopening the strait. America denies this.
And while global markets are breathing a sigh of relief, there are still doubts that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will ever return to normal.
“It appears this agreement will effectively codify Iranian control over the strait by creating a framework for Iran to extract fees from transit vessels,” Lissner said. “That’s why Trump has so far refused to release the text of the deal — making it impossible to verify its contents.”
reluctant occupation
For decades, the central pillars of American power were its military superiority and Washington’s commitment to maintaining a “rules-based order” with like-minded allies. Translated into global trade, this meant that American power could ensure freedom of navigation and the efficient movement of goods such as oil around the world.
America designed this global system and has been its biggest beneficiary. However, Donald Trump has always been skeptical of this, calling it the US being “betrayed” by the world with little in return. Trump’s disapproval of this global system was made clear by the US President’s irregular imposition of tariffs last year, which is creating uncertainty in the world economy even after the levies have been withdrawn.
‘Superpower Suicide’
The first Iran nuclear deal struck in 2015 by Barack Obama’s administration was an example of US-led multilateralism. It was prepared in painstaking collaboration with China and Russia, as well as European allies. While imperfect, it allowed pressure on Iran to be applied slowly and cohesively, while preventing disagreements from escalating into open conflict.
Trump aimed to complete the deal during his first term in office in 2018, and it seems he still believes he can use American force to force Iran into something better. On Monday, Trump said Obama was “basically paying him [Iran] shutdown” and that his administration has “negotiated robustly.”
Lissner, along with other analysts such as historian Timothy Snyder, has called the Trump administration’s approach to US foreign policy “superpower suicide”.
Under Trump’s leadership, he said, the US has “progressively destroyed the system that Washington, along with its allies, built to keep itself powerful and prosperous.”
“Iran only furthers this trend, further undermining the rules-based order and alienating U.S. allies. These steps are leading to a ‘new world disorder’ characterized by increasing violence and instability.”
Edited by: Darko Janjevic