Attacks on Kiev before NATO summit: What is Putin’s goal?

Ukraine is slowly recovering after another heavy Russian bombing. Russia launched a major attack on the Ukrainian capital overnight on Monday.

At least 22 people were killed and dozens were injured after attacks on residential buildings and infrastructure in Kiev. 15 people were killed in the main target, the Kyiv area. Debris is being removed from more than 20 sites.

Ukraine lacks air defense

On the evening of July 5, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned citizens that intelligence reports indicated that Russia was preparing a major attack. “This reflects Putin’s mentality – so soon after US Independence Day and before the NATO summit in Ankara. Russia wants to cause even more harm and kill people,” Zelensky said in a video message on the messaging platform Telegram.

The President urged Ukrainians to issue an airstrike warning. He also called on Ukraine’s partners to accelerate the delivery of interceptor missiles for the Patriot system.

His warning proved accurate. According to Ukrainian officials, Russia launched 68 missiles of various types overnight, including Iskander-M ballistic missiles, 3M22 Zircon and Onyx cruise missiles, as well as 351 drones. Although Ukrainian air defenses managed to intercept a large number of cruise missiles on 6 July, they were unable to shoot down a single ballistic missile.

Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuri Ihnat said the main reason was the shortage of Patriot missiles.

Several killed after Russia attacks Kiev overnight

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Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said, “Ballistic attacks are once again killing civilians. Because the enemy cannot achieve its goals on the battlefield, it is increasingly directing ballistic missiles at residential buildings and killing civilians.”

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha described the latest bombing as “one of the most brutal attacks ever”, involving dozens of ballistic missiles. He called on NATO heads of government to be aware of what the people of Kyiv have had to endure. “Protect Ukrainian children from Russian ballistic terror. There is no more urgent task than this,” Sibiha wrote on the social network X.

a message to nato

With the latest attack on Ukraine ahead of the NATO summit in Ankara, Vladimir Putin wants to signal to the alliance that any decision it makes to support Ukraine cannot stop him, says Oleksandr Krayev, an analyst at the Kiev-based Ukrainian Prism foreign policy think tank. “He wants to scare European and NATO allies so that at some point they consider their support for Ukraine meaningless, with the message: ‘No matter what you do, Putin will attack anyway’,” Kriyev told DW.

Ivan As of Ukraine’s National Institute for Strategic Studies also pointed to a connection between the bombing and the NATO summit. He said that Putin wants to show that Russia is strong, that Russia should be feared and that if NATO countries stand against Russia and help Ukraine then Moscow will always be able to attack the civilian infrastructure of NATO countries.

Russia attacks Kiev before NATO summit

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We also noted that supporters of the war in Russia were increasingly skeptical that their country could win the war. So the attacks are an attempt to move the domestic debate in Russia where Putin wants it, he told DW.

“Russia must create and maintain an image that makes it look powerful, strong, and victorious in this war. The attack on Kiev is meant to demonstrate that Russia still has a chance.”

Will Putin’s strategy succeed?

Following the latest attack on Kiev, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Ukraine “urgently” needs additional air defense systems and that the issue would be discussed at a NATO summit. “And we are working hard to seal the deal on the 21st sanctions package in the next days. We will keep increasing the pressure until Russia stops the bloodshed,” he posted on Twitter.

Experts interviewed by DW said Washington’s stance on Putin and the war in Ukraine is gradually changing. According to Krayev, US President Donald Trump is now convinced that Russia is not a reliable partner, but that instead of supporting the peace process, it is harming it. He says Trump, on the contrary, sees Ukraine as something to be gained: blocking the enemy on the front lines, striking at Russia’s energy sector and economy, and it has proven itself a stable negotiating partner.

If it were up to Trump, Kriev said, the NATO summit in Ankara would solidify that change in perspective. He suggested that allies could express their support for Trump’s new position and express it in a joint document or statement.

“Shooting at the Ukrainians to break them – this strategy has not worked for Putin so far, it has had the opposite effect,” Kriev said. “This was already evident in 2022, when it also had the opposite result. The partners intensified their efforts and enabled Ukraine to acquire significantly more air defense systems, especially Patriot systems.”

The US said it hoped the summit would continue to encourage NATO countries to provide Ukraine with Patriot missiles in exchange for NATO guarantees. The issue of granting license to Ukraine to produce these missiles can also be discussed. In addition, the summit could approve $140 billion (€122 billion) of military aid to Ukraine through NATO over two years, the expert said.

This article was originally published in Ukrainian

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