“As of tonight, I am a candidate for president,” Marine Le Pen said on French television Tuesday evening.
It was the day a Paris appeals court upheld an earlier ruling against him for embezzling EU funds. Le Pen is the leader of the Rassemblement National (RN) faction in the French National Assembly. His party is considered to range from right-wing populist to far-right.
Following the verdict, Le Pen was ordered to wear an electronic ankle monitor. His decision to run for president came as a surprise to many, as he himself had previously refused to campaign for the presidency.
She has already run for the top post three times, twice losing the election to incumbent Emmanuel Macron. Macron cannot run again.
Their decision also means Jordan Bardella, a 30-year-old RN party leader and political disciple of Marine Le Pen, will no longer run in the elections in the spring of 2027.
RN victory has never been so close
Surveys look promising for RNs. According to polls, the party’s candidate is likely to win by a huge margin over the next-place candidate in the first round of the French presidential election in April, with the vote share expected to be between 32% and 38%.
Former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, of the center-right party Horizons, is considered the strongest contender for the presidency. If he faces the RN candidate in the runoff, he will need to get both center-right and left-wing voters behind him to prevent an RN victory.
It has already worked in several presidential and parliamentary elections. Similarly, in Germany, political parties from all political parties often form coalitions against the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which now leads in opinion polls.
“But this dynamic has weakened further in recent years,” Jakob Ross, a France expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations, tells DW. “The chances (that the RN will also win the runoff) are higher than ever before – that’s for sure.”
RN wants nothing to do with AfD
The rise of the Rassemblement National was made possible by a long-term strategy of what Marine Le Pen has called “de-demonization” – moving away from the anti-Semitism and outright racism that characterized the approach of her father, party founder Jean-Marie Le Pen, and toward a more liberal, government-drawn course, accepted by middle-level voters.
The more likely a 2027 electoral victory seems, the more the RN distances itself from far-right parties in other countries and instead seeks contact with centre-right parties.
And this is where Germany comes into play. Both Le Pen and Bardella have in the past explicitly distanced themselves from the AfD, describing it as too extreme. He has also expelled the AfD from its joint parliamentary group in the European Parliament.
Yet both parties share a similar platform, particularly in their opposition to immigration and their skepticism towards the EU.
Chancellor Merz praised on climate policy and migration
Jordan Bardella met with German Ambassador Stephan Steinlein in Paris for talks earlier this year. And in May, in an interview with Frankfurter Allgemeine ZeitungBardella apparently praised German Chancellor Friedrich Merz of the conservative CDU and spoke of “ideological common ground”.
Bardella cited joint criticism of the EU’s Green Deal climate protection program and its handling of “migration flows”. The French politician apparently welcomed Germany’s resumption of border controls.
This was a new development. In the past, RN politicians – like the far left in France – have repeatedly spoken out in tones ranging from critical to hostile towards Germany. Jacob Ross says, “Often, at both ends of the political spectrum, an image of an overbearing Germany is painted.” He says Germany is “seen as a country that pulls strings in Brussels and through the European Commission, and weakens the French position through legislation and administrative acts.”
With his comments, Bardella wanted to signal to the German government – and above all to the conservative CDU/CSU bloc – that France’s RN has changed and will become a pragmatic partner and leave all campaign rhetoric behind once it comes into government.
RN election victory could create problems
The German Chancellor’s office remained silent on Bardella’s proposals. Merz, a former European Parliament lawmaker, emphasizes the value of European integration and clearly does not give much importance to the praise of a far-right French politician. However, the German Chancellor will, for better or worse, have to consider how to deal with a potential future far-right president in France.
Jacob Ross anticipates disputes at the bilateral and EU level in such a scenario. “There will be a lot of potential for conflict over political issues,” he says. It would be a problem if France – which, unlike Germany, is completely dependent on nuclear power – withdrew from the European electricity market. The same will apply if France actually cuts its EU contributions drastically, as RN leaders have announced. According to Ross, the question will be: will Germany have to pay even more?
Meloni as a role model?
However, political analysts do not expect an end to Franco-German cooperation. He suggests that the situation may be similar to that with Italy’s right-wing Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. “Even before his election victory in 2021, the European press wrote that fascism was knocking on Italy’s door, but Meloni soon became a reliable partner at the European and bilateral levels – what Friedrich Merz describes as a strategic partner.”
“Of course, there will be a certain loss of trust and a lot of friction,” Ross concluded, “but it won’t be like everything will fall apart if the RN candidate actually wins.”
This article was translated from German.