Opposition politician María Corina Machado has been planning to return to Venezuela from the United States for months. When a devastating double earthquake struck the coastal area of La Guaira In June, He believed the time was right. In a video message, the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize laureate accused Venezuela’s interim government led by Delsey Rodriguez of actively obstructing disaster relief. This allegation has also been raised by earthquake victims and some aid organizations.
Machado recorded the video in Panama City. From there he planned to fly to Venezuela. Sources close to him allege that the Venezuelan government had threatened the airline with a landing ban if Machado boarded the flight. Neither Copa Airlines nor the Venezuelan government have confirmed or denied the claim.
In the video, Machado does not mention the incident that was reported by the Wall Street Journal in early July. according to ArticleIn June Machado attempted to fly from the United States to the Dutch-held Caribbean island of Curaçao by private jet and then travel to Venezuela by boat. She secretly took the same route in the opposite direction to travel to Oslo for the Nobel Prize ceremony in December.
Citing high-level sources, The Wall Street Journal reports that the private jet provided for Machado was over the state of North Carolina when he was ordered to return by the US government. The State Department justified the demand for the return of the plane with concerns that political disputes could further complicate relief efforts after the earthquake.
The conservative Machado was long considered the most important ally within the Venezuelan opposition to US President Donald Trump. The New York Times headline on the rift between Machado and the Trump administration read: “U.S. ousts Venezuelan opposition leader as she tries to return.”
Machado took advantage of the moment
Phil Gunson of the International Crisis Group in Venezuela told DW that it is clear the U.S. government does not see Machado as a transitional politician. And he sees at least one good reason for this: “She was really essential to the opposition’s victory in 2024. But she is not a negotiator. She also has a lot of problems reaching agreements with people on her own side.”
Venezuela’s electoral commission declared incumbent President Nicolas Maduro the winner of the 2024 vote, although the result was protested at home and abroad. International observers said opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez had clearly won the election. Machado actively – and, according to many analysts, decisively – supported him during the campaign, as he himself was barred from running in the election based on a court decision.
On January 3, 2026, US troops kidnapped Maduro and brought him to the United States. Since then Delsey Rodríguez has been the acting President of Venezuela.
There was never any doubt about Machado’s own presidential ambitions. Yet, the longer she remains abroad, the more she fears that her popularity within Venezuela may decline. It seemed that the earthquake disaster was the right time for her to return to Venezuela, so much so that she was apparently willing to risk alienating her supporters in the US government.
“They’ve told him over and over again, ‘This is not your time,'” Gunson said. “But she’s basically refused to take the hint. And she continues to move forward with her plan. She’s very eager to come back.”
America gives priority to stabilization
The US government is clearly not interested in making Machado the next President of Venezuela any time soon. Trump has made it clear on several occasions, including on Iran, that, for him, the democratization of other countries is secondary to American interests. As a result, democratic elections are the lowest level in the US government’s three-point plan for Venezuela: stabilization, reconstruction, and reconciliation and democratic transition.
“He doesn’t have a high regard for democracy,” Gunson said. “He considers authoritarian rulers to be simpler and more efficient.”
“The current plan is fundamentally an economic and commercial plan and it is turning Venezuela into a somewhat reluctant U.S. ally on the geopolitical front,” Gunson said. In other words: it is about Venezuela’s natural resources, investment opportunities for American companies, and weakening China’s influence in the US.
America’s ‘fault lines’
The events of the past few days highlight not only the differences in priorities between Machado and the US government, but also tensions within the Trump administration. “Venezuela’s earthquakes are exposing fault lines in US policy,” Benigno Alarcon Deza, a political scientist at the Universidad Católica Andrés Bello in Caracas, wrote in the magazine. America Quarterly. Alarcon called it a violation of long-standing US foreign policy, which has been dedicated to weakening socialist governments since the Cold War. Now, Trump clearly wants to “protect the remnants of Chavismo that he has chosen to retain,” writes Alarcon, referring to the left-populist politics of the now-departed Hugo Chávez.
The US government also does not seem to have any coherent strategy. While members of Trump’s inner circle accuse Machado of opportunism, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has repeatedly expressed understanding of his desire to return to Venezuela, according to The Wall Street Journal.
This is not surprising, given that Rubio is known for his commitment to turning Venezuela and Cuba, his parents’ homeland, into U.S. partners. Possibly with an eye on a 2028 presidential race, he has attempted to build an image as a supporter of the rule of law, to the extent that his role as secretary of state allows, said Tom Bateman, a BBC correspondent who covers the U.S. State Department. SaidIn a podcast. That’s why he repeatedly distanced himself from aspects of Trump’s foreign policy, such as his comments about Greenland and attacks on drug-trafficking boats in the Caribbean. Bateman said, “What he usually does is basically put the blame on Trump and clearly put the responsibility on him.”
Currently, Machado remains one of Venezuela’s most prominent and popular opposition politicians. Still, his return at this time could further destabilize the country politically, Gunson said. In this respect, Trump’s decision not to allow Machado into Venezuela may actually be the right one, regardless of the US President’s intentions. Gunson said, “Washington’s refusal to approve Machado’s return at this time, even if motivated by self-interest, is not necessarily a bad thing.” “The immediate focus should be on rescue efforts; Machado’s interests are primarily political.”
This article was originally published in German.