NATO members agreed to a comprehensive military aid package for Ukraine totaling €140 billion at their recent Ankara summit. In addition, after meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, US President Donald Trump announced that he intends to grant Ukraine a license to produce Patriot air defense missiles on its soil.
These missiles are vital to defend the country against Russian ballistic attacks. It is reported that the stockpile of Ukrainian Patriot missiles is depleting. In fact, during the major attack on July 6, the Ukrainian Air Force was unable to shoot down a single Russian missile.
Trump said the US wants to share its Patriot technology with Ukraine and give it the right to produce air defense missiles. He also said that America is ready to provide any necessary assistance.
Trump also said he wanted to buy Ukrainian drones, marking a complete change in his attitude toward Ukraine’s defense industry, which he had previously dismissed. However, he now praised the country’s extensive drone manufacturing capabilities.
He described it as “surprising” that Ukraine is still capable of producing drones “in the event of war”. Ukrainian drone expertise is widely sought after, including in Europe, and several countries signed drone agreements with Ukraine at the recent Ankara summit.
a historic decision
After Japan and Germany, Ukraine will be the third country in the world to be given the right to produce Patriot missiles. However, military expert Oleh Katkov, editor-in-chief of Defense Express, a Ukrainian media and consulting company, says it will take several years to go from political announcements to the actual production stage.
“It’s really great, it’s a historic moment,” Katkov told DW. “But it is important to understand that such a process does not take just a few days or weeks. Despite its industry, skill and expertise, it took Japan two years from reaching the agreement to starting production. We are probably still at the stage of the Ukrainian and US governments reaching a general political agreement.”
He told DW that a government-level agreement needs to be finalized before defense contractors can begin cooperation. Only then will it be possible to negotiate with American companies that own the rights to Patriot missiles, Katkov said.
“PAC-3 missiles are manufactured by Lockheed Martin, and PAC-2 missiles are manufactured by RTX (Raytheon),” Katkov explained. “These companies must first enter into contracts with Ukrainian companies and only then we can talk about starting production in Ukraine.”
Oleksandr Khara, Director of the Defense Strategy Center of Ukraine The issue goes beyond whether Ukraine will get a license to produce Patriot missiles. “I really hope there are no hidden situations,” Khara told DW. “Such as expecting Ukraine to make concessions to Russia before it gets these Patriot missiles. We can expect all kinds of things from the current US administration.”
However, Ihor Reiterovich of Kyiv’s Taras Shevchenko National University expressed doubt that the Patriot missile agreement will be implemented soon. “This is a symbolic matter,” the political analyst told DW. “First and foremost, this is a message to the Russian Federation: ‘Look what could happen next.’ However, it is clear that Ukraine will need a lot of time to actually establish Patriot missile production at home.”
The White House is showing the Kremlin that it is not abandoning Ukraine but supporting it, Ritterovich said. “If it does not produce patriots now, Ukraine will do so in the future, and this should serve as a warning to Russia.”
Is Ukrainian NATO membership off the agenda?
What was surprising about the Ankara summit was that there was almost no discussion about Ukraine’s possible NATO membership. Oleksandr Khara mainly attributes this to Trump’s stance. “Even before returning to the White House, Trump made it clear that he is opposed to Ukraine joining NATO,” he said, adding, “If the alliance’s most important country takes such a stance, it is clear that no one will seriously discuss membership anymore.” Yet Khara feels that Kiev should not abandon its strategic goal of joining the bloc.
Khara told DW that Europe will continue to maintain a collective security system and Ukraine should be part of it. “We will not be able to control Russia on our own for long.”
Even though Ukraine’s possible NATO accession was not discussed in Ankara, Ihor Reiterovich believes the summit was still a success for Kyiv. That’s because the discussion focused on Ukraine, indicating its important role in European security affairs, Reiterovich said.
This article was translated from German