The term “Blue Dot Fever” has been circulating in the media for some time. “Blue dots” refer to seats available on the US ticket sales platform Ticketmaster. Too many empty seats right before a concert can cause problems for both artists and organizers – including canceled shows. With more and more concerts being affected by this “disease”, is the future of concerts uncertain?
economy of superstars
The situation is quite different for big-name stars. Leading musicians such as Beyoncé, Oasis and Coldplay still easily fill large stadiums.
According to the official Pollstar chart, Beyoncé had the most successful music tour of 2025, generating revenues of over $400 million (Є359 million). The Oasis Live ’25 Tour was one of the biggest box office successes in recent years. Coldplay also remains a strong crowd-pleaser, with many concerts on their current world tour selling out instantly.
Yet all large concerts face a common challenge: rising costs, as Johannes Averke of Germany’s Federal Association of the Concert and Event Industry explains: “Due to rising personnel costs, rising technical costs, energy and inflation, we have rising production costs compared to 2019.”
As a result, tickets are becoming more expensive, meaning fewer fans can afford them.
The impact of these rising costs is not even felt across the board. Stephan Thanscheidt of FKP Scorpio, one of Europe’s largest concert and festival promoters, confirms this.
Thanscheidt said, “There are several factors at work here, such as the fact that some megastars have a huge number of fans who never give up on their idols for anything.” “And if they need to keep an eye on their spending, many people would prefer to go to one big concert rather than several smaller events that are considered one big event.”
The late American economist Alan B. Krueger called this “the economics of superstars”, in which only a few superstars generate most of the revenues.
What about the stars of tomorrow?
Johannes Everke believes that the live music market is under great pressure. Typically, organizers rely on the revenue generated from larger music festivals to finance smaller, lesser-known events. However, this model is in danger of collapsing if profit margins decrease.
Averke says that although large ticket sales at mega-events guarantee high revenues, it does not necessarily mean that promoters are making big profits due to ticket prices increasing at a slower rate than promotion costs.
“The life cycle means supporting small bands for a period until they get big enough to make money. Then you take those profits in turn and invest in so-called product development by supporting smaller operations once again,” Everke told DW.
A prime example is Ed Sheeran, who, among others, was endorsed by FKP Scorpio for years before becoming a top-selling star.
Thanscheidt said, “Many of our current successes started as passion projects, and we couldn’t always know whether they would be financially successful or not.” “This wouldn’t be possible without cross-financing new ideas or artists we believe in. If we succeed today, we make tomorrow’s successes more likely.”
Concerts are no longer promotional tours
Another complicating factor is how the economics of concerts have changed.
Everke explains that in the past, tours were to promote new albums. “You would play concerts and even if you lost money on them, you would recoup the costs through album sales. So, labels sometimes make financial contributions to the concerts.” But in the age of streaming this is no longer the case.
According to Everke, about half of artists’ income now comes from live performances. Therefore, the pressure to achieve commercial success through touring is very high.
Additionally, many established musicians now have much longer careers. “They are all playing an endless series of concerts because record sales alone no longer provide them with enough to earn a livelihood,” Everke said.
This situation leads to a saturated market and intense competition to retain audiences.
Going away from touring?
Some megastars have stepped away from touring and are now setting up “residences”. These are series of concerts in which artists perform at one place for a long period of time.
A prime example of this is Shakira, who is set to hold a series of 12 concerts in Madrid in the second half of 2026. Demand has been so high that additional dates have been announced on more than one occasion. The performances will take place in the purpose-built stadium “Estadio Shakira”.
Harry Styles is another such example: in June, he played 12 concerts at Wembley Stadium in London.
However, Johannes Everke does not consider this to be a sustainable model for the future of the market, as very few artists are able to attract fans from across Europe or continents.
Why solidarity is needed – British example
Johannes Everke remains optimistic despite the challenges and warning signs. The demand for live concerts is higher than ever and the market is growing.
According to the GEMA organization, about 70 million people attended concerts featuring popular music (mostly pop and rock) in Germany in 2024, more than before the COVID-19 pandemic.
Even though a select few superstars will continue to account for the majority of the market’s revenue in the near future, Everke believes the market will still expand to a broader audience. He is convinced that “people always want to hear something new and will always want to hear new music and new trends.”
Everke says it’s important to continue supporting smaller events. He cites a positive example from the British Live Trust model – at many large concerts, one pound per ticket is voluntarily contributed to a fund that supports smaller venues and the grassroots music scene.
Harry Styles supported the effort during his London residency, which Everke says is a “fantastic sign of solidarity within the industry.”
Perhaps the many “blue dots” are not a sign of waning interest in live music, but instead show a market in transition. The challenge now is to preserve and nurture small venues and artists.
This article was originally written in German.