When Keiko Fujimori steps into the presidential office on Tuesday, she will bring back a political movement that has not been in power for more than a quarter century.
Fujimorism, a mix of neoliberalism, populism and strict government policies, characterized the 1990–2000 presidency of his father, the late Alberto Fujimori. Keiko Fujimori is stepping down amid a climate of social polarization, with promises of greater security, economic recovery and reforms in the health and education sectors.
But beyond those domestic projects, Fujimori is taking charge at a time of increased strategic importance for Peru. The country has become one of the key battlegrounds in the growing competition between the United States and China for political influence in South America.
tough on crime
Fujimori has already indicated that security will be a top priority for his government.
On the agenda: more video surveillance, a stronger police presence, tougher punishment for crimes and organized gangs, and command and control centers across the country. Part of the action includes building four mega-prisons like the one in El Salvador.
Eliana Carlin, a political science expert at the Pontifical Catholic University of Peru in Lima, is concerned about how Fujimori’s plans will affect human rights.
“Back [these measures] “The purpose of the strong ideological position is to justify making the police and armed forces completely subject to military jurisdiction,” he said.
In addition to paying more attention to security, Fujimori has said he intends to pursue infrastructure projects, attract private investment, build new schools and hospitals, and modernize the country with the help of technology and artificial intelligence.
But fulfilling these promises largely depends on whether the government is able to raise the necessary funds. Infrastructure and essential services are facing huge losses. There are also rising crime rates and the threat of a strengthening El Niño weather pattern, which could hit Peru with drought, extreme heat, flooding and other climate-related disruptions.
Strategic players in South America
Foreign policy will also be a major challenge for Fujimori’s administration. The opening of the Chancay port and logistics hub has turned Peru into a strategic player in regional trade – and made it a central focus in the geopolitical rivalry between Washington and Beijing.
The estimated $3.5 billion (€3 billion) project is part of China’s world-wide Belt and Road Initiative. Once fully operational, the port is expected to reduce shipping time between Peru and China from about 40 to about 23 days, making Chancay a new gateway to Asia.
Thanks to ports and other investments, China has become Peru’s most important trading partner. According to official data, bilateral trade between the two countries is expected to exceed $40 billion in 2024. America is in second place, whose trade is about 25 billion dollars.
Michael Shifter, an assistant professor who teaches Latin American politics at Georgetown University in Washington, said there is a lot at stake in Peru.
“Beijing has played a very important role in Peru’s economy for many years, while at the same time the US wants to expand its influence. Nowhere is the competition between Beijing and Washington more evident than in Peru,” he told DW.
For Shifter, the port of Chancay will be important for both Peru and its regional neighbors. “This will reduce transportation costs and ease trade with Asia, especially China,” he said. “This project has immense potential for the future of the South American economy.”
Part of a planned “bioscenic” corridor between Brazil and Peru, the Pacific hub in Chancay will be linked to the Atlantic Ocean through rail and road projects, facilitating the export of products from across South America to Asia.
Balancing between China and America ‘will not be easy’
Fujimori has also announced plans to expand its cooperation with the US, particularly in the areas of security and the fight against organized crime. The challenge for Shifter will be to maintain the delicate balance between Washington and Beijing.
He said, “Caico wants to align itself with Washington and avoid tensions with the US. At the same time, China has been indispensable to Peru’s economy for many years, and the Chancay port enjoys widespread support in Peru. Balancing this relationship will not be easy.”
To remain on the good side of the US President, Peru’s participation in the so-called “Shield of the Americas” will also be important. The coalition launched by Donald Trump to combat organized crime has already welcomed the cooperation of the right-wing governments of Argentina, Chile, Ecuador and El Salvador.
According to Shifter, “Joining ‘America’s Shield’ would demonstrate closeness to the Trump administration.”
New role for Peru in Latin America
Fujimori’s inauguration comes at a time when conservative forces have gained influence in many Latin American countries. However, the Peruvian case is unique to Shifter.
He said, “It is tempting to interpret her election victory as another shift to the right in Latin America. But Peru is more complex than that. Keiko Fujimori has shaped Peruvian politics for many years, and the country is already pursuing a pragmatic course.”
However, political scientist Carlin fully expects a change in foreign policy.
“[Fujimori] She has already made clear that she wants to engage more closely with the US and other conservative governments. “I think we’ll see Peru take a tougher foreign policy stance, but I don’t think Peru can do anything without China,” he said. “It would not be realistic to break ties with Beijing.”
This article was originally written in Spanish.