Japan’s decision to lift a long-standing ban on the sale of lethal weapons abroad has been welcomed by allies but condemned by regional rivals.
However, the policy change is likely to have a lasting impact on the geopolitical rivalries that are destabilizing the Western Pacific region. Some fear the move could push the region to the brink of armed conflict.
The government confirmed last week that Japanese companies will henceforth be free to sell advanced military equipment to 17 countries with which it has defense agreements, reversing a 1967 policy.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s administration is taking the decision as a way to ensure the country’s own security by helping partner states.
“Expectations about Japan’s defense equipment are rising,” Takaichi told reporters in Tokyo. “Equipment transfers that meet the needs of like-minded countries will contribute to enhancing their defense capabilities.”
Security fears prompt policy change
Analysts say there are several reasons behind this decision, but all return to the need for Japan to do more to guarantee its security.
“Given the serious security environment surrounding Japan – primarily the challenges posed by China and North Korea – Japan needs to help guarantee the balance of power in this part of the world,” said Masayuki Masuda, director of China studies at the National Institute of Defense Studies in Tokyo.
“One way to do this is to provide the best weapons systems to our partners like the Philippines and Australia,” he told DW.
Manila and Canberra are the first allies to benefit from Japan’s turnaround, with the announcement sealing major deals that had been planned for months.
New markets for Japanese weapons
Japan has signed a $6.5 billion deal with Australia to deliver 11 upgraded versions of its Mogami class frigates, which are already in service with the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF). The first three warships will be built in Japan and delivered by 2030, while the remainder will be built in Australian shipyards.
Indonesia is reportedly keen to acquire the Oyashio-class submarines and the Philippines is eyeing the phasing out of the Abukuma-class destroyer escort ships in Japan, which would significantly enhance the Philippine Navy’s capabilities as it confronts Chinese maritime forces that have occupied atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, which Manila claims as its sovereign territory.
Japan is also working with the UK and Italy on a sixth-generation stealth fighter jet under the Global Combat Air Program (GCAP) and is developing one. glide phase interceptor (GPI) with the United States to deal with hypersonic missiles.
Deepening concerns about China
“This decision has been taken mainly because Japan is more concerned about the security challenges we face,” Masuda said. “The Chinese Navy has expanded its operations in the Central Pacific and deterrence is a key component of Japan’s national security strategy.
“We are also seeing a growing challenge from North Korea as the regime tests new intercontinental ballistic missiles with greater range and payload, which threatens to escalate tensions in a new direction,” he told DW.
“Japan is working hard to use diplomacy to create a stable environment in the region, but this must be supported by deterrence capabilities.”
Margarita Estevez-Abe, a Japan expert at Syracuse University’s Maxwell School, said Takaichi’s decision was driven by a number of factors, including some that may be more important than self-defense.
The Japanese “political will” to export arms predates Takachi, thanks to his mentor Shinzo Abe, who in 2014 relaxed a strict 1967 ban on defense exports to allow the sale of non-lethal equipment such as surveillance, transportation, rescue and minesweeping, while lethal weapons were banned at the time.
“The timing of Takachi’s decision was driven by two factors,” Estevez-Abe said. “First, the US is pressuring all its allies to spend more on defense. Instead of channeling that extra spending into purchasing US arms, Takachi wants to use it as industrial policy. And Japan cannot build a viable defense industry without export markets.”
“Second, Takaichi wants to amend the Constitution to remove Article 9, the so-called ‘peace clause,'” he said. “The more unstable the world becomes, the easier it will be for him to justify that amendment. His decision to depart from the status quo is part of that broader agenda.”
Partners and rivals
Allies have welcomed Tokyo’s decision, with US Ambassador to Japan George Glass on Ax calling it a “historic step” that will help boost defense capabilities between the allies.
France welcomed Japan’s decision, with a Foreign Ministry spokesman telling reporters, “It will contribute to the security of people and the maintenance of sovereignty in Europe and the Indo-Pacific region.”
Other countries have expressed strong opposition, with a Chinese Foreign Ministry official saying, “Japan’s recent dangerous moves in the military and security fields disregard its self-proclaimed ‘dedication to peace’ and adherence to an ‘exclusively defense-oriented’ policy.”
Estevez-Abe rejected that claim: “This is the same accusation that Beijing has repeatedly leveled against hawkish LDP prime ministers,” she said, adding that Tokyo’s policy change would strengthen existing ties and help Japan build new alliances, as concerns grow over Washington’s commitment to its allies.
“The United States started this dynamic,” he said. US President Donald Trump has, “alienated so many US allies that, as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney puts it, ‘middle powers’ are actively working to reduce their dependence on Washington.”
“Relying less on American weapons is very much part of that conversation,” Estevez-Abe concluded.
Edited by: Keith Walker