Supply is contracting and selling pressure is exhausted, Binance shows.
For firms like Glassnode, bitcoin is going through “a healing process.”
The bitcoin (BTC) market is currently torn between the strength of its fundamentals and the prudence of its participants. A report from the Binance exchange, published on May 17, 2026, highlights that selling pressure shows clear signs of exhaustion.
According to the exchange, the ecosystem has built a price floor solid, a scenario that has historically preceded great bullish cycles. This conclusion It is mainly based on the behavior of long-term investorsthose who keep their BTC stationary for long periods.
The data reveals that “nearly 60% of the BTC supply has not moved in over a year, a significant increase from the 27% recorded in 2012.” The historical peak of this inactivity was reached in January 2024, with 69.5%coinciding precisely with the approval of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States, as seen in the graph.
“Despite the subsequent ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ backlash, supply slack has remained near historically high levels, suggesting sustained conviction from long-term holders,” Binance noted.
Currently, bitcoin ETFs accumulate total net assets for 104,290 million of dollars, equivalent to 6.5% of the total bitcoin market capitalization. This volume represents a significant portion of the supply that has shifted to financial instruments with a long-term horizon.
Stable distribution and speculative apathy
The research highlights that the strong price fluctuations of the last two years did not cause a collapse in the distribution of the currency. Around 70% of investors decided to keep their positions without selling.
This behavior is complemented by the Short-to-Long-Term Realized Value (SLRV) indicator, which compares the transactional activity of short-term versus long-term buyers. According to Binance, SLRV is “deep in its historical bottom zone,” reflecting clear market apathy.
Long-term holders dominate the supply while short-term speculators have largely exited. Historically, each previous cycle bottom coincided with the ratio entering the shaded area, as seen in the graph.
Short-term speculative and retail traders liquidated their holdings, leaving circulating supply dominated by long-term buyers. Historically, each definitive bottom in the price of bitcoin has coincided with SLRV readings below 0.1 (as occurred in 2012, 2015, 2019 and 2022). This compression eliminates risky leverage and helps form more stable foundations for the price of bitcoin.
Liquidity shortage on exchanges
As a third pillar of the analysis, Binance identified a significant contraction in the percentage of bitcoin available on exchanges. From their peak of 17.6% during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, exchange balances have fallen to 15% (data as of May 17), after the permanent departure of 500,000 BTC to cold wallets.
Less bitcoin on exchanges means a liquidity crisis on the supply side. If an exchange runs out of coins and a wave of buyers arrives, the price has to rise aggressively to find someone willing to sell. It is a bullish setup for the price of bitcoin.
Short-term MVRV: transition to profits
The fourth indicator analyzed is the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), it is a crucial metric to understand the psychology and profitability of short-term investors (those who bought their coins less than 155 days ago). This ratio remained below 1.0 since November 2024which implied latent losses and the risk of panic selling.
Inside the red circle at the far right of the graph, there is a deep red “trough” that began in late 2024 and extended through much of 2025. However, right at the end (May 2026) the vertical line again touches exactly the 1.0 levelas seen in the graph.
According to Binance, This marks the point at which recent buyers begin to generate unrealized profits. As these gains are still in the early stages, a new wave of selling pressure is unlikely to materialise. “Historically, this setup has preceded sustained recoveries,” the exchange argued.
The absence of massive gains also prevents the emergence of premature euphoria, while the prolonged period in the loss zone seems to have absorbed the widespread fear and strengthened the conviction of current investors.
The community reacts with skepticism
Despite the technical arguments presented by Binance, members of the investment community reacted with skepticism on social network X.
The user who identifies himself as Julien CryptoBoost pointed out that this type of structure “does not guarantee an immediate rise, although historically it rarely sets up a lasting bear market.”
Meanwhile, another member of the community who identifies himself as Maksim warned that “depleted selling pressure does not mean there is no more supply to come.”
Another voice of the community identified as Bigboy, preferred to be cautious and commented that he “was saving the report to see how it ages.”
For his part, Alfie Solomons was much more critical and accused the report of being a “lie designed to fleece people,” accompanying his message with a failed prediction by Changpeng Zhao (CZ), founder of Binance, who in January anticipated a supercycle for bitcoin that to date has not materialized.
Glassnode’s cautious view
A parallel Glassnode study also adds caution and moves away from extreme optimism. The firm describes the current dynamic as a “demonstration without conviction,” as reported by CriptoNoticias.
Although he recognizes a more solid internal structure than three months ago, he attributes the stabilization of the bitcoin price to a slow healing process rather than an explosion of euphoria. According to Glassnode, traders have abandoned fears of capitulation, but They do not yet show the confidence necessary to validate a prolonged uptrend.
Spot purchases and inflows of institutional capital support the price, but market inertia does not appear sufficient to quickly push bitcoin above $100,000 without a significant rotation of external capital.
Binance’s report paints a constructive picture based on solid fundamentals and tight supply, while Glassnode recommends remaining cautious amid the lack of clear bullish conviction. The market seems to consolidate a more robust base, but still requires external catalysts to confirm a new bullish cycle.