The UN weather agency issued an update on Tuesday predicting an 80% chance of an El Nino event between June and August this year.
El Nino is a periodic increase in ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, typically lasting between nine and 12 months. According to WMO.
The weather patterns could cause temperatures to rise around the world, increase rainfall in some parts of the world and drought in others, while also increasing storms in the central and eastern Pacific.
What did WMO say about the possibilities and impacts of El Nino?
The WMO said there is a “close to or greater than 90%” chance of El Niño occurring between June and August, with an 80% chance of it lasting until at least November if it begins.
“Although some uncertainty remains about the peak strength and timing of El Niño, most forecast models would suggest it will be at least moderate – and possibly strong,” WMO said.
The most senior WMO official said it would be wise to prepare for the most serious scenario.
“We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event – which will trigger drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and sea,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
Other related risks may include a higher prevalence of diseases spread by insects such as mosquitoes or ticks – as well as reduced food and water supplies.
Crops most vulnerable to climate change, such as cocoa, may also suffer unusually poor yields.
What did UN’s Guterres say?
Signs of a possible El Niño period have been collected and noted by WMO and other groups for the past several months, primarily due to high ocean temperatures.
The last El Niño period between 2023 and 2024 contributed to making 2024 the hottest year on record worldwide.
“El Nino will add fuel to the fire of a warming world,” UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in a video statement. “The impacts will be even more intense, spread even further, and cross borders at devastating speed.”
He said that “climate action is the only effective response to the crisis,” such as ending “addiction” to fossil fuels, accelerating the transition to renewable energy, protecting the most vulnerable and providing early warning systems for all, mixing and matching between long-term plans for the coming months and more immediate mitigation methods.
Heat waves in Western Europe, parts of Asia
The warning comes shortly after a heat wave hit many parts of Western Europe in early May, hitting record temperatures.
It also coincides with generally higher temperatures in parts of Asia such as India and China.
From late April to mid-May, sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific – the area used as a monitoring reference – were approaching El Nino limits, the WMO said, with sub-surface temperatures more than 6 degrees Celsius (about 10.8 Fahrenheit) above average.
The WMO said the forecast for June to August is “almost universal dominance of above normal temperatures in almost all parts of the world”.
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Edited by: Wesley Rahn