According to the majority of bets on the Polymarket platform, bitcoin (BTC) will reach higher prices in the remainder of October.
In an open call on the platform about what price bitcoin will reach in October, 62% of the money is bet on the $70,000 (USD). The value invested in this projection is almost USD 580,000.
Although bitcoin has not been trading at USD 70,000 for four months, this goal does not seem unreasonable these days, considering the current market situation.
The price of the currency reached USD 68,000 this week, its highest in almost three months. And, although it is now trading in the range of USD 66,000, this leaves it very close to the target of the prevailing bets.
With a rise of just 2.5% above its high this week, bitcoin would reach the target of USD 70,000. This is a low percentage increase that is easy for the market to unleash in the event of a strengthening in demand.
Below, you can see the details of the main bets on what price bitcoin will break in October.
With the arrival at such a level, it would be only 4% away from reaching new all-time high prices, given that its record so far was USD 73,700. This happened seven months ago, in March 2024.
It should also be noted that, For two months, bitcoin has seen an upward trendrecording increasingly higher minimum and maximum prices. Therefore, if this behavior continues, which reflects the growing interest in the market, it is possible that it surpasses the psychological level of $70,000.
The current bullish trend has broken the downward sideways streak that the currency had maintained since March when it recorded its all-time high price. In this way, a reactivation of the demand force is distinguished, something vital to break this long period of consolidation.
In the following graph you can see this change in behavior, using the marked dates.
The possibility of bitcoin reaching higher prices is also possible, according to historical behavior this month. October has historically been the most bullish period for the digital currency, something that generally occurs in the second fortnight.
Without going any further, the currency experienced a sustained price rally in the second half of October last year, which began an upward trend, as the following graph shows. This correlates with the momentum seen this week which, if its historical pattern continues, would worsen as the days of the month go by.
October is usually a positive month for markets in general. This is because it is when economic activities resume in the northern hemisphere, where global powers such as the United States are located, after the summer holidays.
This seasonal factor, added to the cycle of interest rate cuts in multiple places, such as the United States, China and Europe, favor liquidity. Therefore, this can be seen translated into increases in multiple assets. In fact, the S&P 500 (SPX) and gold have set new record prices this week with this macroeconomic scenario.
Furthermore, the capitalization of stablecoins has been increasing for just over a year and is approaching its all-time high. This is key to the rise of the bitcoin and cryptocurrency marketsince it represents a large size of available liquidity, as reported by CriptoNoticias.
Investors usually hold stablecoins to buy volatile cryptoassets like bitcoin as soon as there is clarity of their upward trend. The reason for this is that these assets maintain their prices equal to fiat currencies such as the dollar (USD). So, these allow you to protect yourself from the downward volatility of the market.
The growth in stablecoin holdings precedes bullish trends in the bitcoin market, so the current scenario fosters the possibility of a rebound for the currency.
Bets of a Trump victory in the elections soar
The bullish look at bitcoin occurs in the midst of rising expectations that Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump will win the electionwhich will be on November 5. The bets on Polymarket that expect her victory went from 48% to 62% in one month, while those of the Democratic leader, Kamala Harris, fell from 50% to 38%, as seen below.
Trump has focused much of his campaign on supporting the cryptocurrency ecosystem. The candidate even promised that, if he wins, he will maintain national reserves in bitcoin and fire Gary Gensler, president of the SEC, a securities regulator that has hindered the industry’s advancement.
Given this, along with Trump’s expressed desire to turn the United States into a center for the bitcoin and cryptocurrency industry, his victory in the elections provides optimism for its market and regulation. Therefore, rising expectations that it will win may be acting as a catalyst for prices.
Expectations on ETH are not so bullish
Despite growing expectations that Trump will win the elections, it is worth noting that bets on the second most capitalized crypto asset, ether (ETH) of the Ethereum network, do not look as bullish as the first, bitcoin. The majority (62%) expect the currency to reach USD 2,750, a level not seen for a month and a half, which is 43% below its all-time high of USD 4,900.
Even bets on the platform indicate that 70% expect the price of BTC to reach a new all-time high (ATH) in the remainder of 2024. On the other hand, in the case of ETH, the expectations of this happening are minimal, with only 15% betting on it. This can be seen in the following screenshots.
The Polymarket betting platform has become an indicator of market sentiment, with its increasing use. In fact, according to a report from the platform, it registered a historical record of activity during the US presidential debate last month. This indicates that users are updated on new events.
In this sense, It is a useful tool to identify market expectations about the next prices of bitcoin, ether and cryptocurrencies.. Furthermore, since these are investor bets, there is money at stake that demonstrates bullish projections for the market for the remainder of October and 2024.
