The indicator shows that the selling pressure is exhausted.
According to Swissblock, “bulls absorbing any remaining selling pressure.”
The bitcoin (BTC) risk index fell to 0 this April 14, 2026, entering a total low risk regime.
According to data provided by the Swissblock firmthis is a level that, historically (2024 and 2025), has coincided with moments in which selling pressure runs out and the market begins to find a floor.
The graph shows two main elements. On the one hand, the evolution of the price of bitcoin (upper line), which alternates bullish and bearish sections. On the other hand, the risk index (bottom line), which oscillates between high levels (associated with greater market vulnerability) and areas close to 0, which indicate low risk conditions.
The stripes shaded in blue They mark precisely those periods in which the indicator is at minimums.
According to Swissblock, these areas should not be interpreted as the beginning of a new bullish phase, but as the point at which the market completes its adjustment process. “This is where the fund is completed, not where the expansion begins,” the firm notes.
The BTC risk index is an indicator that seeks to measure the probability of additional drops in the price of the currency created by Satoshi Nakamoto.
To do this, combine metrics on-chain valuation and market behavior, such as the relationship between market value and realized value (MVRV), the indicator of realized gains or losses (SOPR) and the analysis of the behavior of short- and long-term holders, which allows identifying whether newer or older investors are putting pressure on supply or holding onto their assets.
In simple terms, the index attempts to elucidate whether the market is in a phase of stress, capitulation or recovery. When the value falls to 0, as is currently the case, the reading is that the selling pressure has already been largely absorbed.
«Next step? Stabilization within the low-risk regime, and the bulls absorbing any remaining selling pressure,” indicate Swissblock analysts. If this happens, it is a bullish sign for BTC.
And this data appears at a time when the market also closely follows macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. In the United States, wholesale inflation stood at 4.0% year-on-year and 0.5% monthly, still high although below expectations, as reported by CriptoNoticias.
Added to this is the war in the Middle East, which keeps the markets in suspense. Disruptions continue in the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of the world’s oil passes, although market sentiment improved due to the possibility of resuming talks between the United States and Iran. In this context, the stability of BTC becomes even more relevant.