On April 15, 2026, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes published an analysis in which he proposes four possible scenarios arising from the conflict between the United States and Iran and how these could influence the behavior of bitcoin (BTC). Its central thesis is that, beyond the geopolitical outcome, the determining factor for the price of the asset will be global liquidity.
In your rehearsaltitled No Trade Zone, Hayes describes three main scenarios -in addition to a fourth extreme that he discards as not being “investable”-, all linked to the evolution of the conflict around the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil and gas trade. Based on these scenarios, it evaluates possible effects on financial markets and, in particular, on bitcoin.
War scenarios and economic effects
The first scenario, called “return to normality”, contemplates a rapid cessation of hostilities and a return to status quo previous. In this context, Arthur Hayes considers that bitcoin could experience a moderate rebound, although limited by deflationary pressures associated with the advance of artificial intelligence, which – as he argues – could affect employment and consumption capacity in developed economies.
The second scenario, which he calls the “Tehran toll”proposes that Iran manage to restrict maritime transit in the Strait of Hormuz, charging fees in currencies other than the dollar. If consolidated, this dynamic could accelerate the sale of assets denominated in dollars, increase the demand for gold and favor the use of the yuan in international trade. Hayes suggests that this process could weaken the hegemony of the dollar as a reserve currency.
An intermediate scenario includes a possible naval blockade by the United States, which would generate additional disruptions in the flow of energy and would increase uncertainty in the markets. In parallel, it contemplates a forceful military response from Washington that restores transit in the region, but with the risk of further escalation and significant damage to the energy infrastructure of the Persian Gulf.
Bitcoin and global liquidity
In these contexts of tension, Hayes anticipates a similar pattern: an initial drop in risk assets – including bitcoin – followed by an eventual recovery driven by stimulus policies. As he explains, governments could be forced to increase spending and resort to monetary issuance to mitigate the economic impact of an energy or financial crisis.
Likewise, the analyst maintains that the price of bitcoin It depends mainly on the amount of money in circulationrather than the level of interest rates. In that sense, he argues that an environment of monetary expansion, even combined with high rates, could benefit assets with limited supply such as bitcoin and gold, as reported by CriptoNoticias.
However, he warns that, in initial phases of financial stress, investors often reduce exposure to volatile assets to cover losses or margin calls, which could put downward pressure on the price of bitcoin before any recovery.
The analysis also incorporates debatable elements, such as the possibility of a transition towards a monetary system less dependent on the dollar or the structural impact of artificial intelligence on employment and credit. Hayes acknowledges that does not assign specific probabilities to each scenario and that its approach seeks to guide portfolio decisions rather than predict specific results.
In conclusion, the author suggests that, although geopolitical events can act as catalysts, the performance of bitcoin will be mainly conditioned by the response of central banks and the evolution of global liquidity.