The US Navy has been blockading Iranian ports since mid-April in response to Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz amid a war with the US and Israel. Washington hopes to restrict Iran’s exports – especially oil – and put additional pressure on the leadership in Tehran.
“The United States could maintain such a blockade militarily for months, in some scenarios even more than a year,” Shaheen Modares, an international security expert at Rome’s Tor Vergata University, told DW.
This is bad news for Iran. In an online post, Iran’s chief negotiator and parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, said this goes against the fragile ceasefire currently in place between the warring parties. He also said that it would not be possible to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as long as such “serious violations” continued. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard says it is already seizing ships in maritime incursions.
US President Donald Trump, however, is committed to continuing the blockade until a more permanent agreement is reached with Tehran.
Pressure is increasing both inside and outside Iran
Security experts see the Modares blockade as a means to gradually, controlledly weaken the Iranian regime. He draws parallels with the final years of the eight-year Iran–Iraq War (1980–1988), when Tehran was under constant military and economic pressure and eventually agreed to a ceasefire.
Modares points out that the Hormuz disruption puts both Iran and the global economy under stress, and is therefore not a permanent solution.
“The only loss in such a scenario is the population — even if the war continues or ends without structural changes,” he told DW.
Dozens of Iranian ships reportedly escaped US blockade
The main objective of the US blockade is to stop Iranian oil exports. However, according to a recent report from industry publication Lloyd’s List, this is not entirely effective. On Monday, news outlets reported that 26 ships – including at least eleven oil and gas tankers carrying Iranian cargo – had crossed the blockade line since April 13. The Pentagon denied the report a day later.
But Iran’s energy trade is only one element of the equation.
“In addition to exports, imports of basic foodstuffs and production inputs will be more severely affected by the US blockade,” Berlin-based economic journalist Ashkan Nizamabadi told DW.
‘Everyone is now living from one day to the next’
According to Nizamabadi, Iran imports about one million tons of rice every year, mainly from India and Pakistan. If the maritime blockade continues, Tehran will likely have to rely on alternative land routes or increased cooperation with Türkiye.
“This logistics change is much more expensive than sea transportation. This will increase prices and ultimately consumers will have to bear the cost,” Nizamabadi said.
In Iran, supplies of some imported goods are already limited as sellers fear shortages.
“Everyone is now living from one day to the next,” said a journalist in Tehran, speaking on condition of anonymity. Daily life, he said, is marked by collective exhaustion.
“In supermarkets and bakeries, people buy only as much food as they need for one meal, as if they don’t know what will happen the next day,” he told DW.
Fear of unemployment looms amid devastation
For many Iranians, the burden of war and a prolonged economic crisis now increases the fear of losing their jobs. After oil and industrial facilities were destroyed, thousands of day laborers were thrown out of their jobs. There is also a risk of production halt in the steel and petrochemical industries causing a chain reaction, forcing many dependent companies to close operations. Many services stopped during the war and have not yet recovered even during the armistice.
Samaneh, who works as a sales assistant in a cosmetics store in Tehran, describes the situation as follows: “Everything stopped during the strike last winter. Then there were protests, then there was war. Now we have a ceasefire, but nothing has improved.”
Many families are now living off their savings and do not know how long they will be able to endure this situation. Iranian sources report that many youth have returned to their parents’ homes. Others are moving out of big cities like Tehran.
Over the years, Iran’s economy has been hollowed out by mismanagement, corruption, and international sanctions. The average inflation rate in Iran in 2025 was projected to be approximately 51% percent. For 2026, economists project an even bigger jump to about 69% percent.
Poverty is increasing in Iran
Amir Alizadeh, head of international trade at the Ulm Chamber of Industry and Commerce, said Iran’s economy is currently in recession.
“The International Monetary Fund is forecasting negative economic growth of about 6% percent for Iran this year,” Alizadeh told DW.
The United Nations Development Program forecast an even deeper recession, and also projects the poverty rate to rise from 36% to nearly 41% this year.
The Iranian regime has repeatedly managed to deal with popular instability and remain in power. In this war, as in any previous crisis, it is the Iranian people who are paying the price.
Edited by: Darko Janjevic