The 7-day moving average is near -0.005%.
Similar episodes in the past coincided with local market lows.
Bitcoin funding rates have fallen to their most negative level since 2023, a behavior that in previous cycles has coincided with areas close to market bottoms. This move occurs while BTC remains above $75,000, showing resistance despite the bearish bias in derivatives, according to Glassnode data.
The seven-day moving average of these rates is around -0.005%. This indicator does not correspond to a broker commission, but to a periodic payment between traders within perpetual contracts, whose objective is to keep the future price aligned with the real market (spot).
In practice, it acts as a balancing mechanism: When there are more traders betting bearish, the rate becomes negative and short traders must pay those who are long.. This reflects a predominance of bearish positions in the market. On the contrary, if the majority bets up, the rate becomes positive and the longs pay the shorts.
In this way, more than a simple cost, The financing rate functions as a signal of dominant positioning and the level of pressure between buyers and sellers in the derivatives market.
What is striking about the current context is that, despite several weeks with negative financing – especially during March and April – the price of bitcoin has continued its recovery. From levels in the low and middle range of $60,000, it has managed to advance to approach $75,000.
Funding history
This type of divergence is not new. Over time, episodes of markedly negative financing have tended to appear at times of tension or capitulation. In March 2020, during the initial impact of the pandemic, bitcoin fell towards $3,000 amid very negative rates.
Later, during the FTX crisis in 2022, The market showed this pattern again, with bitcoin bottoming near $15,000. In 2023, the turbulence associated with Silicon Valley Bank also coincided with negative rates and a temporary drop below $20,000.
The logic behind this behavior is structural: When the market tilts too much towards bearish positions, a significant volume of short bets accumulates. If the price stops falling or begins to rise, those positions may be forced to close, generating additional buying pressure.
In the current scenario, the persistence of negative rates suggests that pessimism remains high in the derivatives market, even when the price shows strength. This disconnect can be interpreted as a sign that bitcoin is moving forward amid general caution.with the bearish positioning potentially functioning as indirect support for further upward moves.