Donald Trump’s attacks on Pope Leo XIV – and a social media post depicting the US president as an AI-generated Jesus – proved to be the breaking point for Giorgia Meloni.
Italy’s prime minister, head of the far-right Brothers of Italy party, has long been seen as someone who could exert influence over the right-wing Trump, a key but difficult ally.
But when the Pope criticized the US-Israeli war against Iran and said the world was being “destroyed by a handful of tyrants,” and Trump responded by calling Leo “weak” on social media, Meloni came to the pontiff’s defense.
Noting that more than half of Italians consider themselves Catholic, Meloni said Monday that she finds Trump’s comments about the Pope “unacceptable.” As head of the Catholic Church, he said this is “right and normal.”[the pope] Calling for peace and condemning all forms of war.”
Trump, who had previously considered Meloni “one of the world’s real leaders”, immediately lashed out and told an Italian newspaper that “he is someone who is unacceptable” and “is no longer the same person.” This would potentially be bad news for the Italian Prime Minister, as she loses Trump’s ear and the influence that comes with it.
But instead, analysts said, Meloni may have used the feud between the Pope and Trump to deliberately distance himself from the increasingly unpopular US president. A March poll by YouGov found that 80% of Italians had an unfavorable opinion of Trump – especially now that Iran is causing huge increases in energy prices in Italy, which is heavily dependent on natural gas.
“There are elections in Italy next year and, even in Italy, the pump price will decide” who wins or loses, said Roberto D’Alimonte, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Florence. “Defending the Pope was a smart thing to do, because the Pope is a popular figure among his voters.”
Is Iran shaping Meloni’s Trump policy?
According to a recent survey by the Italian research institute SWG, nine in 10 Italians said they were quite concerned about the impact of an Iran war on energy prices, while six in 10 said they were against a war with Iran.
Before the war, Italy imported about 10% of its natural gas from Qatar and was Europe’s largest importer of energy from the Gulf country. But the conflict and blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping route, and Iran’s retaliatory attacks on Qatar’s largest gas refinery have forced Italy to seek alternatives, sending electricity prices soaring.
Leo Goretti, head of the Italian foreign policy program at the Istituto Affari international think tank in Rome, said rising energy prices had created a clear discontent among Meloni’s support base.
“The price of diesel in Italy exceeds €2 [$2.30] per litre. “This has had a massive impact on many social groups that are likely conservative and pro-Mellonie,” he said. D’Alimonte agreed, saying that “people associate higher bills and gasoline prices with Trump.”
Meloni broke up with Trump a long time ago
Meloni’s relationship with Trump has cooled in recent months, especially since she spoke out against his threats to annex Greenland in January. Goretti said Trump’s continued support for Israel in the Gaza conflict – in which thousands of Palestinians have been killed – and Meloni’s support for both Trump and Israel could cost him politically, further contributing to political division.
Goretti said, “I think the Italian public was very angry about the humanitarian violations in the Gaza war.” “They are not happy with the instability that Israel is spreading in the Middle East.”
Goretti said that sentiment may have contributed to Meloni’s defeat in a referendum on an unrelated judicial reform in March. The vote was widely seen as a referendum on his right-wing government and domestic popularity, and 54% of Italians did not vote, forcing Meloni to view Trump as a liability.
Meloni is now trying to make amends, suspend the defense deal with Israel and stand up to Trump.
“Melonie is a practical person,” said Julian Hoez, editor of the magazine. french dispatch And a political analyst.
“There are many reasons why she has decided to take on Trump – because he is unpopular in Italy, because Italians are struggling with high energy prices, because she wants to recover from the referendum loss, and because GDP growth appears to be stagnating.
“However, with the dispute between Trump and the Pope, he has the potential for a major victory by defending a Catholic leader who lives in Italy.”
Meloni can now turn to Europe’s centre-right
Goretti said there is a perception in Italy that Meloni’s relationship with Trump has not benefited his country since he first came to power in 2022.
“It was wishful thinking that a mediation role between the EU and Trump might help Italy,” Goretti said. Now, she said, she may lean more toward associating herself with center-right conservative governments rather than the far right.
Despite Trump’s support, Viktor Orbán’s defeat in Hungary’s April 12 election has left Meloni isolated in the EU, D’Alimonte said.
“He lost a like-minded politician in Europe, a sovereigntist, an anti-immigration leader. Gradually I think he has to get closer to Merz, Macron and others.”
Hoez said the EU could also benefit from Meloni’s confrontation with Trump. “For the EU this means Trump has fewer options to undermine their unity at the EU level,” he said.
As D’Alimonte said, “Meloni is no longer Trump’s darling.”
Edited by: M. Kuebler