After that big rise, bitcoin could have a historical correction.
Ruarte sees bitcoin and gold as complementary assets, although he is more bullish on bitcoin.
Roberto Ruarte is 62 years old, has four decades of experience in the financial markets and a career that includes managing Eduardo Costantini’s portfolio at the age of 23 and earning tens of millions of dollars betting against the Japanese stock market in 1990.
This Argentine trader and investor is not—by his own admission—a specialist in bitcoin (BTC) and cryptocurrencies. But, when you look at the bitcoin chart you see something that looks familiar: a wave structure that, according to their analysis, points to an explosive rally.
“If bitcoin goes above 80,000 dollars, it will go above 126,000, to 300,000, 400,000 or 500,000 dollars,” Ruarte said in a interview conducted by Nicolás Rosso, which was published on April 10, 2026 on the YouTube channel “El Mítico.” When the driver asked him in what time frame he imagined this movement, the answer was forceful: “in a year.”
Ruarte applies the theory of Elliott waves to read the behavior of bitcoin. It is a method of technical analysis that identifies repetitive fractal patterns in prices, which represent the natural oscillations of collective psychology between optimism and pessimism.
From that perspective, the level of $80,000 per bitcoin is not an arbitrary number, but—according to Ruarte’s vision—a dividing line between two radically different scenarios.
«How long has bitcoin been floating between $60,000 and $70,000? Time is running in favor of the bullish trend. If bitcoin doesn’t fall in the next two weeks, it looks to me like it’s going to break $80,000. It went down in three waves, and three waves means correction. For me, it confirms [cambio de tendencia] above 80,000. And from there for me it goes to 300,000 or 500,000.
Roberto Ruarte, Argentine investor.
As long as the price does not exceed that threshold, Ruarte prefers to wait. Not because he doubts the final destination, but because he is an investor who operates with momentum: prefers to confirm the address before giving a definitive forecast. “Normally I expect the market to have momentum,” he noted. “Sometimes I do catch the ‘falling knife’, I have had experiences like that and you have to have a clown’s pocket to endure it.”
According to Ruarte’s vision, the coming rally—if the break of 80,000 is confirmed— Could be bitcoin’s last big rally before a historic correction. His argument is technical and ‘Elliotist’: «bitcoin never made a big wave 2. And people’s big doubt is that at some point they are going to make a big 2.
In Elliottian jargon, a “large wave 2” implies a deep and prolonged correction. Ruarte identifies three relevant historical supports: 50,000, 16,000 and 3,000 dollars. Only after that great correction would bitcoin be “enabled” to go, perhaps, towards a million dollars.
A pending test for bitcoin
Ruarte does not skimp on praise when talking about bitcoin’s history. «Bitcoin is the most successful asset in history, have no doubt. There is neither the tulip bubble nor anything that compares to it. Nothing beats bitcoin, not Nvidia, nothing.
However, he maintains an important conceptual reservation that he detailed in the interview with Nicolás Rosso. Ruarte believes that bitcoin has a pending test: surviving a major systemic crisis. “It has experienced interesting bear markets, but we have to see if it can survive in that sense,” he adds.
He also suggests that scarcity, although necessary, is not sufficient to guarantee the value of an asset. “I believe that scarcity is a sine qua non condition, obviously, for something to be valuable, but the most important thing is the acceptability of the product and that people begin to accept it,” he explains.
At that point, he recognizes that adoption is advancing: from El Salvador to ETFs (he himself buys the IBIT, an ETF issued by BlackRock, as a means of exposure), the ecosystem is consolidating.
Bitcoin is not the only asset in which Ruarte sees an extraordinary rally ahead. Gold, to which he dedicated much of his career, also occupies a central place in his thesis.
“For me gold is going to $22,000 an ounce in the next 3 to 5 years,” he said. The point is that if the gold backing of all the current monetary issue in dollars were calculated, the implicit price per ounce would be exactly that.
Silver is also on their radar, with a target derived from the historical relationship between the two metals. Since the Treaty of Bretton Woods, 16 ounces of silver were equivalent to one ounce of gold. If gold were to reach $22,000, silver should rise to levels of $1,275 or $1,375 per ounce, he maintains.
Ruarte sees gold and bitcoin as complementary assets before rivals, although it recognizes the practical superiority of bitcoin in terms of portability and transfer.
“For me, you do have to switch from gold to bitcoin in that sense because bitcoin can really go up,” he admitted. «When you talk about gold going up to 22,000 it’s crazy, but you’re talking about it going up 400%. And you who are used to bitcoin, have seen it rise 10, 20, 30, 50 times in value.