Monday marks the 52nd anniversary of Türkiye’s 1974 invasion of Cyprus, which led to the division of the island.
Five decades later, the Cyprus issue remains one of the world’s longest-running unresolved disputes.
The United Nations announced last week that Antonio Guterres would visit Cyprus from July 27 to 29 – the first visit by a UN chief in 16 years – in an effort to breathe new life into the stalled peace process.
A new UN effort for progress
His visit marks the culmination of a renewed UN initiative that was launched following an informal wide-ranging meeting on Cyprus held in Geneva in March.
Since then, the UN Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy, Maria Angela Holguín, has conducted a series of consultations in Cyprus, Greece, Turkey, the United Kingdom and Brussels to assess whether political conditions exist for the resumption of meaningful negotiations.
During his stay in Cyprus, Guterres will hold separate meetings with President of the Republic of Cyprus Nicos Christodoulides and Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erhurman.
On July 29, the two leaders are expected to jointly meet the UN chief at the residence of the UN Special Representative in the UN controlled buffer zone.
UN initiatives in the last 25 years
The last time the UN Secretary-General visited Cyprus was in 2010, when Ban Ki-moon sought to bring political momentum to talks between then-President of the Republic of Cyprus Demetris Christofias and Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat.
Both leaders came from leftist political parties that supported a bi-regional, bi-communal federation and were widely seen as having the political will for a comprehensive solution.
However, that momentum faded just a few months later when Talaat lost the Turkish Cypriot leadership election to Dervis Eroglu, while major disagreements over key chapters of the negotiations remained unresolved.
Ban’s efforts were preceded by Kofi Annan’s intensive involvement between 2002 and 2004, when the UN made its most ambitious effort yet for a comprehensive resolution of the Cyprus issue.
Annan personally attended the talks and presented a series of revised versions of the Annan Plan.
The initiative ended with a simultaneous referendum in April 2004. The proposal was approved by a majority of Turkish Cypriot voters, but rejected by 75.8% of Greek Cypriot voters.
British media reports
Guterres’ visit comes amid reports that the United Nations is exploring a possible new framework to resolve the Cyprus issue.
This discussion gained momentum after Britain Independent Reported on July 12 Holguin is working on a revised settlement offer.
According to the newspaper, this framework would retain the agreed model of a bi-territorial, bi-communal federation set out in relevant UN Security Council resolutions, while granting significantly greater autonomy to the two constituent states and limiting the powers of the federal government.
The report also claimed that, in exchange for this broader autonomy, the Turkish Cypriot side would be expected to accept territorial adjustments, including the return of the besieged city of Varosha and the town of Morphou.
It also suggests that new security arrangements are being considered that would allow Greek and Turkish troops to remain on the island under NATO command.
according to IndependentThe proposal seeks to bridge the gap between Greek Cyprus’ commitment to a federal agreement and Turkey’s long-standing support for a two-state solution.
The United Nations has neither confirmed nor denied this report.
When asked about this, President Christodoulides said that “not everything reported by the newspaper is accurate,” adding that he expected further developments in the future.
What next?
Despite expectations surrounding Guterres’ visit, diplomats say the UN chief’s immediate aim is not to discuss a draft settlement plan.
Diplomatic sources who spoke to DW believe the most likely outcome of next week’s meetings will be the announcement of a new informal extended meeting that will bring together the leaders of Cyprus’ two communities, representatives of Greece, Turkey and Britain – the island’s three guarantor powers under 1960 treaties – and the United Nations.
According to the same sources, such a meeting can be held in the end of August or beginning of September. However, unlike previous informal gatherings, the UN is looking for a more structured process this time, with a clear sequence of steps and a defined time frame.
why now?
Although Guterres’s renewed engagement is essentially tied to the final months of his second term, which ends in December, diplomatic sources believe the latest initiative is more motivated by his limited remaining time in office.
For the first time in years, he believes conditions for renewed political dialogue are emerging.
The election of Tufan Erhurman as Turkish Cypriot leader last October has been a major factor. Unlike his predecessor, Ersin Tatar, who advocated a two-state solution, Erhurman has said he is ready to resume negotiations on the basis of a biregional, bicommunal federation.
This change does not represent a change in official Turkish policy, nor does it resolve long-standing disagreements over security, guarantees, political equality or the continued presence of Turkish troops on the island.
However, it has created conditions that allow the United Nations to test whether a meaningful return to negotiations is now possible.
What is the role of the European Union?
Cypriot government spokesman Constantinos Latimbiotis believes that Guterres’ visit should also be seen in the context of a broader increase in international diplomatic activity on Cyprus.
“The Secretary-General’s initiative, the EU’s strong commitment and the appointment of Executive Vice-President Raphael Fito as EU envoy on Cyprus are creating new momentum,” he told DW.
On 8 July, European Council President Antonio Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen discussed the UN initiative with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and urged Ankara to use renewed diplomatic momentum on Cyprus.
A few days later, the Commission appointed Raphael Fito as its Special Representative for the Cyprus issue.
The move was widely interpreted as a signal that Brussels intends to play a more significant role in the process, while underscoring that any future agreement must be fully compatible with EU law.
The EU’s enhanced involvement is also closely linked to the broader trajectory of EU–Türkiye relations.
From Brussels’ perspective, progress on the Cyprus issue could facilitate movement on several key areas of cooperation with Ankara.
On the contrary, the absence of progress remains one of the main obstacles preventing any meaningful upgrade in relations between the EU and Türkiye.
Edited by: Angiel Flanagan