On the morning of May 24, shocking pictures of Ankara were broadcast around the world. Its headquarters in the Turkish capital was surrounded by special forces after a court ordered that Özel be removed from his post as head of the country’s largest opposition party, the center-left Republican People’s Party (CHP).
The party leader and his aides blocked the doors with tables and chairs, but stopped protesting after hours. “We want to avoid escalating tensions and are leaving on our own accord,” Özel said, looking shocked. “Our only crime is to defeat the ruling party.”
Indeed, under his leadership, the CHP accomplished something it had not succeeded in doing in 22 years. It defeated the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the nationwide election.
In the March 2024 local elections, the party emerged as the strongest and took control of city councils in 14 major cities. This includes Istanbul, whose mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, quickly became so popular that he has established himself as a serious challenger to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the next presidential election, scheduled for 2028.
But Imamoglu was soon arrested along with several other mayors and their staff. He is accused of corruption and fraud. And then in May Ozel was removed from his post.
Two months later, he announced the formation of the Yeni Party, or “New Party”, submitting formal registration to the Ministry of the Interior. With 91 MPs, it is set to become the second-largest party in Türkiye’s 600-seat parliament, behind the AKP.
CHP, a divided opposition party
Founded by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, founder of the Republic of Turkey, in 1923, the CHP is Turkey’s oldest political party, standing for separation of church and state, patriotism and republicanism.
Özel, who came from the pro-reform faction and became premier in 2023, was able to open the party to voters beyond its core base, placing greater emphasis on the values of social democracy. As the election results showed, he was successful.
But after Özel was ousted, the party’s longtime leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu, under whom the CHP had lost every election for two decades, returned. Kilicdaroglu was considered Erdogan’s favorite rival.
Why did the CHP split?
There is much speculation as to why the party accepted the court’s decision and why the party agreed to split. Experts believe that behind the scenes, political calculations benefiting Erdogan are going on. This division will allow him to eliminate dangerous opponents before the next presidential election.
The conflict within the CHP begins in 2023: After Erdogan’s defeat of Kilicdaroglu, who was the party leader at the time, in the presidential election, the reformist faction led by Özel and Imamoglu pressured the 75-year-old to step down. They prevailed at the party conference in autumn 2023.
But in May 2026, a court declared the party conference invalid due to alleged irregularities. As a result, Ozel and other leaders were removed from their posts, and Kilicdaroglu and his allies returned.
What did Özel say on leaving CHP?
Özel was less willing to accept this decision; He and his faction fought to the end to remain, but were forced out as the country’s judiciary has become increasingly less independent under Erdogan.
In his farewell speech on Tuesday, Özel called on his supporters to follow him: “We will walk a new path together,” he said. “We will rise to power. Come on friends, let’s go friends!”
And they followed him. The mass exodus to Özel’s Yeni party would give the CHP 44 seats in parliament, making the CHP the fourth largest in Türkiye.
Can Özel pose a serious challenge to Erdogan?
Seren Selvin Korkmaz, director of Istanbul-based think tank Istanbul, said Özel’s Yeni party has a good chance of succeeding because it has so much support from former CHP supporters.
However, he warned not to take voters lightly. He said a recent survey conducted by the think tank showed that voters not only want the CHP with a different name, but want a party that lives up to its legacy as well as beyond it.
According to the Istanbul survey, about 30% of respondents would vote for the new party or at least consider it. Another 19% said their decision would depend on the party’s programme, candidates and leaders.
He concluded that there was a “broad but conditional potential” for support of around 49%, explaining that this was driven by both sympathy for Özel as well as hostility towards the judiciary interfering in party politics. He said that generally opposition voters are open to a new party.
Korkmaz suggested that the new party could make inroads among supporters of the nationalist conservative IYI party and the pro-Kurdish DEM, as well as some voters of the ruling AKP party and its coalition partners the ultranationalist MHP. He said the biggest challenge will be to unify the sometimes conflicting expectations of these different sections under a single umbrella.
He predicted that the party could succeed if it could avoid being too ideologically limited or too soft and centrist. He said it was clear from Özel’s rhetoric that he wanted to establish an inclusive center with a republican and social-democratic backbone.
It remains to be seen whether Özel will be able to establish a party structure in at least 41 of Turkey’s 81 provinces by the time of the next presidential election in 2028. This is a condition to be eligible to contest elections.
Özel’s Yeni party does not have access to the same funds as the CHP, making the process even more difficult.
This article was originally published in German.