In 2020, the Ethiopian government led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed postponed the country’s planned elections due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the largest and most influential party in the country’s northern Tigray region, accused Abiy of unconstitutionally extending his government’s tenure.
The TPLF rigged local elections – which it won – and denied the federal government legal authority over the Tigray region, leading to a conflict that escalated into military hostilities between the TPLF and the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF).
Between 2020 and 2022, an estimated 600,000 people died in the fighting. Both sides accused the other of starting the conflict.
In November 2022, the results of the 2020 local elections were annulled following the Pretoria Peace Agreement between the Ethiopian government and the TPLF.
Since then, an interim regional administration was established in Tigray, sidelining the TPLF’s wartime leaders.
After three years, differences of opinion arose between the region’s interim administration and the TPLF.
In April, the Tigray State Council, which had been dissolved under the peace agreement, was reinstated by the TPLF.
And on May 5, TPLF leader Debretson Gebremichael was elected the new president of Tigray.
“The interim administration no longer exists,” party deputy Emmanuel Assefa told AFP news agency.
Mulugeta Atsebeha, a journalist and former correspondent for the Voice of America (VOA) Tigrigna service, told DW that Debretson entered the president’s office and said he had started working.
TPLF is reestablishing control over Tigray
The move appears to pose a challenge to Tadesse Werede, the head of the Tigray Transitional Administration appointed by the Ethiopian government.
Werede said in a social media post cited By Reporter Ethiopia That the group attempting to seize power by force was responsible for the destruction and danger to the people of Tigray.
Atsabeha said Werede saw the TPLF’s approach as wrong and unproductive, stressing that dialogue was the only solution. He said that Werede had no intention of stepping down voluntarily and warned that any attempt to remove him by force would be illegitimate.
There has been no response yet from the federal government
“Tigray finds itself in a very dangerous moment at the moment,” according to Ammanuel Gedeboe, a researcher at the Clingendael Institute, an international think tank based in The Hague.
Gedebo said there is a lot of uncertainty at the moment.
“We don’t know what the federal government’s response is. So far they have not made any statement or responded directly,” he told DW.
However, some analysts say there are signs of increased military activity.
Journalist Mulugeta Atsebeha told DW that on May 5 and 6, Ethiopian military jets were seen in the skies over Mekelle, the capital of Tigray.
“Now Addis Ababa is sending MiG fighter planes over Mekelle as a show of strength,” said Magnus Fahrer, an anthropologist and Horn of Africa expert at Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich.
“And the ENDF… are establishing themselves in the neighboring states of Amhara and Afar,” Fahrer told DW.
“Defense installations on the access roads from the north to the capital Addis Ababa are also clearly being expanded.”
Ethiopia faces multiple armed challenges, including rising regional tensions involving Eritrea and Sudan, as well as the TPLF in Tigray, the Fano militia in Amhara, and the Oromo Liberation Army in Oromia.
“TPLF remains the biggest challenge [Ethiopian Prime Minister] Abiy Ahmed, who is increasingly isolated internationally because of his alleged collaboration with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the Sudanese Rapid Support Forces (RSF),” Fahrer said.
While still very powerful regionally, the TPLF was effectively banned as a political party in Ethiopia last year.
“Abiy Ahmed has failed to truly dislodge the TPLF’s old guard and establish an opposition loyal to him in Tigray, either politically or militarily,” Fahrer said.
Is there any possible solution?
“From the Ethiopian side we know what they want,” Emmanuel Gedebo tells DW. “They want access through the port of Assab, which, of course, Eritrea sees as a threat to its sovereignty.”
Eritrea is therefore trying to build alliances with actors such as Egypt and the Port Sudan government, Gedebo explains. “And also within Ethiopia, with actors like the TPLF and Fano.”
Horn of Africa expert Fahrer suggested that Eritrea maintains stability through its internal dictatorship and by instigating conflicts in neighboring countries, taking advantage of instability in places such as Ethiopia and Sudan.
“The logic seems to be that Eritrea is trying to deter the Ethiopian government first and is also preparing for any possible conflict if that comes to a head,” Gedebo said. “So that they don’t have to face the much stronger Ethiopian army alone.”
Iran had influence
Of course, the effects of the war in Iran are also being felt in the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia and Eritrea are economically affected, Gedebo said. “From the Ethiopian side we have heard reports of fuel shortages and rising inflation. This may discourage the Ethiopian government from any further moves into the north.”
The war has also had a heavy impact on two highly active elements in the region: the United Arab Emirates, which supports Ethiopia, and Saudi Arabia, which supports Eritrea, for example with plans to spend billions on modernizing the port of Assab.
But the UAE and Saudi Arabia clearly have other priorities right now, Gedebo said.
“Because those governments don’t really have the capacity to get actively involved like they did in the past, when they’re facing this conflict on their own home territory,” he told DW.
“So this could also be a factor that could discourage both governments from moving forward.”
Fuhrer said America’s interest in the geo-strategically good location of Eritrea has increased again due to the war in Iran.
“US sanctions imposed by the Obama and Biden administrations were clearly seen as a possibility,” he told DW.
“Human Rights Watch is fully justified in criticizing the fact that the poor human rights situation in Eritrea has not improved.”
Fahrer said, “War has often been a realistic political option in recent Ethiopian history. Whether it will actually come to that point, however, is impossible to predict.”
“There still appears to be scope for international mediation.”
Azeb-Tadesse Hahn contributed reporting.
This article was originally written in German.